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Hawks And Doves On The Carousel Of Madness
It's been a week since the combination of a blockbuster US jobs report and a surprisingly robust read on services sector activity across the world's largest economy forced a rethink of peak Fed funds.
Of course, US monetary policy outcomes reverberate globally. That means market participants the world over are compelled to take note when both traders and policymakers shift their expectations for US rates.
The repricing witnessed since last Thursday is material -- some 30bps, which had the effe
Oil and gas prices have a lot to say about this as well, including Russia’s announcement
Americans are nothing if not impatient. They are bored with talk of Covid, inflation, high interest rates, etc. Time to get back to “normal.” I don’t think so. Frankly, I’d like to see terminal hit five and stay there for a while (’24 would be good). Maybe that would slow down the buybacks and get companies investing themselves again. Nobody actually knows where we are going but the anecdotes about the changing labor force don’t particularly bode well for the intermediate future, at least.