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Chinese Aid For Russia Suggests Ukraine Is Deadly Dress Rehearsal
One -- perhaps the -- key geopolitical question in 2023 is whether Moscow is overplaying Vladimir Putin's purportedly "no-limits" strategic partnership with Xi Jinping.
Late in December, the two men held a video call which the Kremlin gleefully touted as evidence that Xi and Putin are still close despite China's reluctance to publicly take sides in the Ukraine conflict. Note the emphasis on "publicly."
What happens behind the scenes is the subject of considerable debate, and as discussed here,
Good morning, Walt. Glad you’re exploring this question. Indeed, I’ve heard it said 2025 is the timing for China.
I do not feel very strongly about jumping into the Taiwan landscape to save them from the communists. The US position all along has been One China. The US has encouraged a peaceful transition, returning Taiwan to the Chinese. There will be an argument that American blood ought not to be spilled over an internal Chinese political matter. I believe that argument will stand. The businesses in Taiwan, like TSMC, ought to set up shop in the US and Japan (joining Ex patriot Jack Ma in Tokyo) if they truly wish to survive and flourish. They ought to begin that process, if they haven’t already, with the plant they are building in the US.
I believe the US and its partners in Asia will draw a line around the whole of China, including Taiwan. I believe we will all be very wise to settle for containing the Chinese within their formal borders, and keeping them away from Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, South Korea, etcetera. Depending on China’s disposition after they assume control of Taiwan, keeping the Chinese away from US allies in Asia will be plenty to do.
I’m unaware of any US policy stance or action that shows the “US has encouraged a peaceful transition, returning Taiwan to the Chinese.” What has DoD or State or the WH said or done dating back to the 1980s that suggests the US believes a “peaceful transition” is even possible? One China attempts to show respect to China while implicitly if not explicitly recognizing Taiwan’s right to self-governance. Contradictory on the surface and in implementation? Yes. But no “peaceful transition” is possible absent a radical change in China’s political system and its perception of Taiwan. The Taiwanese appear to share this view: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2022/02/07/why-is-unification-so-unpopular-in-taiwan-its-the-prc-political-system-not-just-culture/.