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Suspicious Data Suggests China Avoided Deep Economic Slump
The Chinese economy held up far better than feared in the fourth quarter and retail sales logged only a modest decline in December, even as the nation grappled with a tidal wave of disease following the abrupt abandonment of strict public health measures after nearly three years.
GDP growth came in at 2.9% for Q4, according to data released Tuesday. Consensus expected 1.6%. Needless to say, the veracity of the figures is debatable.
Q4's print, good as it was under the onerous circumstances, wa
Economies of shrinking populations do not drive global growth. “Everyone” keeps waiting for China to come back online and drive global growth like they have for the past 20 years. It is likely that China has reached a new paradigm and will not be the growth engine everyone is looking for. Also population expectations (even before the likely multiple (tens of?) millions of COVID deaths) is for China’s population to decline to 800 million by the end of the century. It’s unlikely the CCP is still in control of China by then.
@Hopium
I can only hope (but don’t expect) my remaining lifetime may exceed that of CCP control of China. [My being a genuine relic of the 50s…]
I think China’s true 4Q22 GDP is significantly lower than the official figures. Deeper slowdown then implies a larger rebound in 1H23. Longer-term growth prospects look increasingly dour, as the mantle of Chinese exceptionalism is dented by property crisis, Covid crisis, and soon debt crisis. Much of the domestic and foreign money flowing into Chinese stocks is just in it for a trade. Being a long-term investor in Chinese mega-tech where the government has controlling “management shares” feels too credulous.
Right. I had Chinese stock that had previously done very well. Sold it. The idea of hanging on to it felt absolutely unacceptable. I simply do not trust China in its current form. I believe they’ve “evolved” to their old-fashioned, 1949 totalitarian ways. I believe the passage of time will only reveal more clearly that it is so.
As I read the actions of China’s leadership and their posture in relationship to the world, the group of 7 that run the country fundamentally serve only themselves. I believe Xi and the leadership discard truth when they speak to the world. I believe they perceive themselves in opposition to all political constructions in the world that are not communist. I believe their affection for income from western countries arises from the power it enables, not from any affection for any western countries or peoples.
I’ve heard numerous voices online that call out China’s risks in the face of Covid-19, and also, certainly, the assessments of their expected population decline. Of course, the Seven Ogres that run the country aren’t exempt from opinions about their oppressive, near-sighted, and self-serving leadership. But there’s another storm brewing under the radar that will potentially be a more immediate challenge to the leadership.
Apparently, China is running out of fresh water. They have only a proportion of the freshwater needed to maintain the health of the population on an ongoing basis. But because they consume so much fertilizer and pesticide for use on the limited supply of farmland they have in the south, their supplies of freshwater are being spoiled and cannot be used for consumption. Furthermore, most of the population is in the north, which is largely lacks fresh water.
I imagine the Seven Ogres who run the country will divine some solution, at least for the purposes of public information consumption. But I reckon they’ll have to pull rabbits out of their collective hats if they want to keep the government on the same track. Whatever they do, they’re going to run out of options eventually. The solution will likely have to be quite radical and probably costly. Maybe they’ll turn seawater into freshwater?