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Tail Tales
Humanity just suffered two left-tail events in succession. Pestilence came calling in 2020 and then, in 2022, war came to NATO's doorstep.
I'm always careful to show the proper respect for the plight of those for whom disease, famine and war are a fixture of daily life. We like to pretend we've come a long way as a species, and in many respects we have, but for far too many around the world, life is synonymous with perpetual tragedy and uninterrupted suffering.
With that important caveat, the
I think we’re at the dawn of a new right-tail event in tech. As recently as last week, I thought tech was going to have a rough year and we’d see a vicious cycle of layoffs and spending cuts causing earnings to drop and companies to go under. That may still happen in the short term, but I started playing around with generative AI this week and it appears to be the real deal. The level of sophistication was shocking and the use cases across industries and job functions was obvious immediately. I think this might be the modern tech version of the introduction of the assembly line.
It’s both awe-inspiring, but also terrifying as I’m afraid this will continue to drive inequality and job losses as one person will soon be able to do the work of multiple people. However, this will also unleash massive creativity and entrepreneurism. Want to start a company but not invest a ton of money into engineering, legal, or sales and marketing resources to launch? Want to write a book but need some help getting started? Generative AI will enable a lot more people to do those and many other things. The crazy thing is that this is still in its infancy and I’m already seeing people literally write code in minutes that would have taken them a week.
Regardless of what blockchain and crypto enthusiasts think, this will be the real web 3.0. I expect this to be the next big tech gold rush and I think it’ll happen faster than previous iterations. If you want to mine the miners, invest in companies that supply computing power. Maybe this new demand will get people to stop wasting actual valuable resources “mining” crypto 🙂
+1
Dayjob, Have you seen this AI K-pop band? Unbelievable! When I saw this, I immediately thought that the demand for human actors is going to go down dramatically.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=emTX1PEfMXU
For me the current economic and investing conditions seem quiet … too quiet…
I do agree 100% about the orderliness of said activity till this point, save for the housing, cryptos and bubble segments…
Just listened to the AI K-pop clip recommended by Emptynester. Found it boring. And somewhat nonsensical. Perhaps that is a reflection of K-pop rather than A-I? Bubblegum still likely tastes like bubblegum whether made by robots or humans…