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Bulls Hard To Spot After Soul-Crushing Year
There's a lot of skepticism out there about US corporate profits.
I realize this is repetitive, but then again, earnings season is upon us in the US, and unless you believe in miracles, the next three quarters will be defined by slower and, ultimately, negative, EPS growth.
The question isn't really about whether bottom-up consensus is too optimistic. It almost surely is. Company analysts are taking their cues from the C-suite, and management isn't going to deliver bad news any earlier than it
Since the start of 2022, S&P 500 has been doing the two-steps-down-one-step-up thing. The previous down moves were roughly -10%, -20%, -20% (just eyeballing). From the most recent up move (Dec 1), another -20% down move gets us to around 3250, in the ballpark of Street downside targets. The previous down moves have taken about 2 to 3 months.
Importantly, look past the S&P 500 and those other index charts look very different.