A ‘Most Unfortunate’ Week For America
"It took this long, now we learned how to govern."
Said Kevin McCarthy, in a preview of bountiful absurdities to come. If the last several days on Capitol Hill were an example of how House Republicans intend to govern, it's going to be a very long two years. Indeed, "govern" was a misnomer of the worst kind. This week's sordid saga prevented the House from governing. Literally.
It was Saturday in Washington by the time Congress finished writing the latest chapter in the increasingly dishearten
HL Menkenesque kind of outcome. I don’t expect the gop to keep the house in 2024, and their majority is likely to shrink by one seat soon when a congressman gets deported to face charges in Brazil.
The unthinkable has happened. This tiny group of people have the ability to ruin this country. Hey H. how do you think the markets will take this?
Markets won’t care. Not one in 1,000 strategists or analysts has done any serious reading on the history of societal breakdown, political decay and so on, let alone traders.
And honestly, if you look out across Twitter, you can see Democratic economists and progressives posting memes and joking and so on because — you know — even the least well-off among those folks are doing fine, living in the suburbs, etc.
People don’t get it. Congress doesn’t get it either. This situation is perilously close to an anarchic tipping point, but nobody’s going to care until it literally reaches the suburbs — until it’s knocking on their front doors. Because why would they? At the end of the day, all of those people (analysts, strategists, traders, economists, politicians, TV anchors) go home to nice houses in nice neighborhoods and they basically turn off reality like it’s a TV show.
So, sure, you’ll see kinks in the bill curve eventually if a chaotic Congress ends up threatening to upend debt ceiling discussions, but other than that, nobody will care until it’s real to them. And the simple fact is this: By the time it’s real to anyone making $100,000/year or more, it’ll be far too late.
That’s not a doomsday prediction. I doubt seriously that if push came to absolute shove, the Fed and Treasury would let 15 people in Congress blow up the entire global financial system, etc. And I don’t care what anyone at the Pentagon says publicly, I guarantee you that if there’s a “next time” for the Capitol riot, there will be actual, real, active-duty US soldiers up there protecting the place.
My point is just that, sadly, nobody who comments on this actually cares, which is what’s causing the problem in the first place. You have — whatever it is — 70% of society out there living paycheck-to-paycheck or (much) worse, and that’s real life for them, and then you have the other 30% debating that same real life without actually living it. It’s almost like economists, politicians, pundits, analysts etc. are sports commentators narrating a game they’re not actually playing in.
I do think there is a large subset of people who would simply view this comedy as divided/deadlocked government, which to them is a great thing. It limits the ability to respond to emergencies or deal with short term deadlines but also makes it extremely difficult to pass anything stupid or unnecessary unless it’s related to a specific national emergency or need.
And I would argue its not really anarchy, its become comedy
Like a bread and circuses kind of comedy.
Maybe we’ll at least get a new Coen brothers movie out of it. The Miller”s Crossing reference is spot on.
Miller’s Crossing is, in my opinion, the greatest film of all time.
Agreed! I don’t know why it doesn’t get more love, although I do retain a soft spot for Blood Simple since I saw it first, before the Coen brothers were even a thing, and have always liked M. Emmet Walsh.
Heck, how will the USD take it???
Maybe the next two years will be what it takes for a lot of Republican voters to get fed up with the party. I imagine Mitch just cringing as each round of voting displayed the chaos which is the new norm for the House GOP.
I seriously doubt McCarthy will be speaker 1/1/24…
At some point 20 or 30 Republicans can make a deal with the Democrats to form the middle of the road Congress. If it is some form of chaos in August, perhaps then.
The idea of crossover moderate republicans joining democrats is a fascinating one. However, recall that Democrats are united now because they are in the minority. If enough republicans did join the democrats, the liberal/progressive democrats may take that as a sign that they can split from the coalition.
Perhaps there will be from all of this a new political party of moderates, with the left and right splintering off. This would be a wonderful outcome for the country and the markets.
Well said, H!
They irony is with McCarthy being elected speaker, he’s ushering in McCarthyism 2.0. That is ceaseless life destroying investigations in the name of patriotism. Not that he will be leading these investigations, but he better be willing to allow them if he wants to keep his job.
Indeed, sufficient smoke to convince there could be a fire … but, where? … Let’s check several states’ legislatures … Maybe its there and maybe its somewhere else, but it would be wise to continue looking, would it not?