When Life Gives You COVID, Make Lemonade

Notwithstanding ongoing tension in the US tech space, market sentiment was cautiously constructive coming off the holiday, as China’s rapid efforts to dismantle three years of strict COVID controls helped make the case for a sturdier global economy.

That was the boilerplate copy. Of course, Xi Jinping’s decision to reopen China’s borders, announced on Monday, comes with considerable risk — namely, even more infections on top of what’s now the world’s most acute outbreak.

An account of a National Health Commission meeting held last week suggested nearly a quarter of a billion Chinese were infected during the first three weeks of December, and as many as 37 million in just one day. For context, the previous daily record in China was around 40,000. In all likelihood, the number of Chinese infected in December will be roughly equivalent to the entire US population.

In a lengthy NHC bulletin, the Party outlined a new policy for inbound travelers. All that’s required is a negative test 48 hours prior to departure. “Those with a negative result can come to China without applying for a health code from our embassy or consulate abroad, and fill in the result in the customs health declaration card,” the bulletin said. “Those who have a normal health declaration and no abnormality in the routine quarantine at the customs port can be released to enter the society [and] outbound travel of Chinese citizens will be resumed in an orderly manner.” In short: China is officially open to the world.

The rollback of border controls was the culmination of a dramatic about-face which began a month ago with mass protests against lockdowns and calls for Xi’s resignation. There were effectively two options: Acquiesce to the protesters’ demands or crack down violently on dissent. Otherwise, I argued, the demonstrations were likely to continue given that i) this generation of Chinese doesn’t remember Tiananmen and, relatedly, ii) the Party generally disallows (or, at the least, strongly discourages) uncompromisingly honest historical accounts of the episode. So, although fear of the Party may be instinctual, it’s probably not visceral for younger Chinese.

Xi’s anachronistic virus containment strategy was well past its sell-by date anyway, and although I thought he’d resort to crackdowns in order to buy the Party time to gradually roll back the curbs, Xi was apparently convinced that the myriad risks associated with an overnight pivot were worth taking if it meant quelling societal discontent without the government having to hurt protesters (which would’ve incurred the ire of the democratic world).

It’s also possible the Party determined they’d reached the point of diminishing returns when it came to enhancing the domestic surveillance capabilities of Xi’s police state using the various technologies ostensibly developed for virus control. That possibility shouldn’t be overlooked.

There’s no telling what went on behind the proverbial curtain among the Standing Committee. I imagine there were tense discussions, and although I wouldn’t want to venture into conspiratorial narratives, there does seem to be something incongruous about the situation. Just a month ago, Chinese were pouring into the streets to insist on their right to… well, on their right to pour into the streets, to shop, eat and go about their lives. Their wish was granted virtually overnight, and yet according to virtually every first-hand account, the streets are hardly bustling, unless you count people trying to buy medicine, get medical treatment or cremate deceased relatives. The NHC reportedly believes that half of Beijing was likely infected this month.

Apparently, Chinese are now resorting to “traditional” medicines for treatment and prevention, including and especially lemons. It’s like the old saying goes: When life gives you deadly viral pneumonia, make lemonade.

On Tuesday, CNBC ran an amusing, albeit characteristically asinine, piece about Chinese “lemon inflation.” “I did not know that lemon prices could triple in one day,” one Weibo user complained. (If that person avails themself of the opportunity to travel abroad newly granted by the Party on Monday, they’ll be shocked to discover that thanks to raging inflation in the developed world, $1.72 for three lemons — the price quoted in the linked article — would count as a bargain.)

It’s worth noting that due to the prevalence of infection in China, travelers are likely to see the tables turned. For years, China feared importing COVID from abroad, where the virus was spreading unchecked. Now, other countries will be cautious about Chinese travelers. On Tuesday, Japan said it’d require negative COVID tests from anyone seeking to enter the country from China. Positive tests will need to isolate for a week.

Attempts to take the temperature of public opinion on the government’s one-eighty are mostly fruitless. A few Western media outlets cobbled together quotes from Chinese social media to give the world a sense of the conflicting sentiments harbored by Xi’s subjects, but by and large, I’d suggest the public is probably feeling about like you’d imagine under the circumstances: A bit confused, a bit scared, a bit relieved and a bit feverish.

“The new coronavirus will exist in nature for a long time, and its pathogenicity has decreased significantly compared to the early stages,” the NHC said Monday, adding that, “The resulting disease will gradually evolve into a common respiratory infectious disease.”

While describing the justification and “general requirements” for a long-rumored downgrade of COVID to a lower tier of epidemic management, the NHC began by noting that policy will be “guided by Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era.”