China Reopening: What Could Go Wrong?
The Chinese government -- or, more aptly, "the Xi Jinping regime" -- postponed the most important economic planning conference of the year amid a surge in COVID infections. Then, they un-postponed it.
On Tuesday, reports indicated the Party had "delayed" The Central Economic Work Conference given the rapid spread of the virus in Beijing, where the situation is touch and go a week on from the overnight rollback of key pandemic control measures.
Just a day later, the conference was back on. It'
For the US, during the various Covid waves, it was possible to track the wave and position investments accordingly in anticipation. In China this will be difficult because accurate and timely Covid case, hospitalization, and death data won’t be reported. I expect that the Covid wave now starting will crest and subside sometime in 2023 such that the economy will indeed “reopen” during the year, but when? Perhaps look at US, UK, India, Brazil curves for a clue.
I am remembering India at its worst and multiplied .
India’s second wave (first really big wave) took about 100 days to peak (roughly mid Feb 2021 to mid Mar 2021) and another 100 days to abate, suggesting China’s wave might peak around mid Feb 2023? Need to look at other countries and consider similarities/differences.
Or, if you go by official Chinese data, the current wave has already peaked and is down a lot, and that peak was lower than its mini-wave in early 2022 . . .