‘Sell The Last Hike’
It's fair to say markets are obsessed with the idea that the last Fed hike of the current cycle -- so, the hike that precedes the long-awaited "pause" -- will be a green light for risk assets.
That may not be a viable strategy in 2023, though. Or at least not according to BofA's Michael Hartnett, who, in the latest installment of his popular weekly "Flow Show" series, suggested that a "buy the last hike" mentality is yet another example of recency bias, and thus can't necessarily be trusted fol
As a small business owner who employs a fair amount of low-skilled, low wage employees (and one who strives hard to pay above average and take care of employees in ways that should be mandatory, frankly), I’ve been feeling squeezed by the wage inflation spiral in 2022. Now I’m struck with the realization that a planned minimum wage increase in my state (NJ) is going to increase that pressure to start the new year.
A solid 25 states (plus some municipalities across the US) have minimum wage increases coming in 2023. How this ultimately affects the indices that the Fed and the markets watch, I couldn’t say, but I think it will absolutely, at the least, add to the perception that wages are still rising faster then the Fed needs right now.
I admire your attitude towards the treatment of your employees. I trust that the higher minimum wage will help you in competing with rivals that are less concerned with paying a living wage.