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Macro Riddle Has Just One Solution
The recent rally in equities in part reflects the market front-running an eventual negative payrolls print.
That's according to BofA's Michael Hartnett. He wasn't, of course, referring to November payrolls, but rather just the generalized narrative that says the first negative NFP print marks "the pivot is here" moment for the Fed.
It's a familiar narrative. The Fed wants to cool the labor market to corral wage growth, which is still running far too hot to be consistent with 2% inflation. Offi
Really appreciate seeing summaries of leading strategists here, even when I don’t agree with their outlooks. Soft landings do happen, but not the usual case. Given a pandemic and a war, the fomc would have to pull a “sullenberger” to get one. But they should try. So in this case, I would have to agree with the outlooks for a poor outcome.
The FED is plateauing,a form of easing, but not quite what we had the last 15 years. The days of free money may be over.