‘Terrified’ Buyside Has Fed Pivot FOMO
The buyside is woefully underexposed and "terrified" of missing out on any extension of the nascent, and possibly dubious, "Fed pivot" rally.
Rallies predicated on hopes for a Fed pause or, now, a step down in the pace of rate hikes, have been false dawns thus far, but there's a growing consensus around the notion that officials may decide to telegraph an incremental deescalation following a fourth straight 75bps hike at the November meeting.
Nobody is particularly excited about missing the bo
It looks like ambiguity over what constitutes a Fed pivot may be the primary “wall of worry” stocks climb as yet another mid term election rally forms.
Does anyone else think front-running on the upside a Powell press conference is fraught with peril?
Powerful (derivative) forces rocking the boat….what could go wrong?
Investors will take anything they can get and then we can argue the significance of what (if anything ) it means . Sounds like a group of potential rally eggs are on the sunny hillside waiting to Hatch… Tempting to deploy cash but not without rereading Mike Wilson…
I’m willing to believe in a short term rally but maybe not so much in tech. See tonight’s earnings, pattern of tech – vs non-tech +. I realize, duration etc, but earnings and guides need to not dis-cooperate too much.
They are afraid of missing out on a “Fed pivot,” like a flock of gulls fighting for bits of bread that are tossed into the wind. Interesting to see for the moment, but nothing much will come of it.
Bought lots of calls a few days ago, kept stops tight but they’re paying off. Now just moving stops up, waiting for that sweet rebound off exhaustion volume to close the calls and buy puts in time for the main body of panic selling. We’ll see what happens, but for now I feel good about my positioning. I think I’ll go out to eat next week.