The King’s Speech
"The next five years will be crucial," Xi Jinping said Sunday, opening the 20th National Congress with a lengthy speech before a captive audience of thousands in the Great Hall of the People.
Scores of delegates, military personnel and Party functionaries arranged in neat rows were piously attentive. "The rejuvenation of the Chinese nation is now on an irreversible historical course," Xi declared.
Xi's grip on power is likewise on an "irreversible historical course." Stripped of the pomp, the
Making strategic decisions that put your shareholders at risk is fine. That’s the basis of a capitalist system. But putting your nation at risk as well is unconsciable. Do Americans now need to go to war to defend decisions by Apple, AMD & Qualcom to outsource all of their logic chip needs to Taiwan?
The vaunted “Silicon Shield” is fully based upon the notion that American citizens are ready to confront China to ensure their access to iPhones. Well played by Taipei!
Ultimately, I think, the silicon shield is imaginary. It does not require much imagination to consider moves Xi might make through less direct actions to impose itself on Taiwan’s freedom and limited defensive capacity. From the US perspective, I believe the risk surrounding Taiwan is far too substantial. I do not believe Xi’s China will merely wait them out.
More and more every day, the new and evolving world and the evolving China reflect likenesses to the old. Mao and Chiang Kai-shek are not such distant memories.
If I were Xi, I would consider using the youth and technology available in my young military to impose a blockade on Taiwan. They are not far from enabling such a capability. Ships and airplanes flying around the island, combined with a lot of harsh and threatening words to anyone who would come to Taiwan’s aid would push the point of the gambit and change the landscape of the current state of affairs. The US, or any other sympathetic and interested country, would have to pause and consider a confrontation before making any moves.
“The complete reunification of our country must be realized.” Who does that sound like? I am surprised that he has not invaded Taiwan why the US is tied up with Ukraine.
He’s not an idiot. He’ll wait for the stars to align, just like he did in Hong Kong. And it won’t be naked insanity accompanied by unhinged pseudo-religious, tortured historiography (à la Putin). It’ll be opportunistic and calculated and carried out from what he (or a successor) firmly believes is a position of strength, and likely under some superficially plausible excuse. Our frame of reference is entirely different from Xi’s. 100 years isn’t a long time for China. I’m sure Xi would be fine with it if someone from the future traveled back in time and told him that the optimal window for reunification didn’t open until 75 years after his reign.
I shared a response to Derek. It differs from your view. I agree he’s not an idiot, and that the Chinese are capable of a lot of patience. But Xi seems to me to see himself as a form of the “great and powerful” Oz. I think he might consider other options as they develop. His military is only going to grow larger.
Through all of the Formosa History it has been under Chinese control at different points in history but it has never really been China.
This is the same as Putin‘s Russian history.
If it ever has been then it always is.
derek: Having visited there four years ago, I can say that Taiwan deserves to be defended as a vibrant democracy of people who have never been ruled by the CCP and do not wish to lose their independence. Many in Taiwan wish to strengthen cultural and economic ties with Japan and the US.
joesailboat: “Through all of the Formosa History it has been under Chinese control” Bullpucky. Japan ruled Taiwan from 1895 until 1945; there was no “Chinese control” during that time. Since 1945 Taiwan has been independent of CCP control. Tainan is Taiwan’s oldest urban area; it was initially established by the Dutch East India Company and is commonly known as the “Capital City” because it was the capital of Taiwan for over 200 years. (Coffin (or coffin bread, coffin board) is a Tainan speciality; I tried it in the shop where it was created.)
Misquoted
Look up the ethnic breakdown of Taiwan’s population. Less than 10% are native Taiwanese. The remainder are descendents of those who fled the mainland in 1949.
When I first visited there around 1985, there were still some native old timers who spoke bitterly of the violent and vicious way the arrogant mainlanders took over the island. There were and still are many who spoke well of the pre-war occupation of the island. Contrast that to the attitudes in the Koreas.
Edit: the pre-war occupation by Japan
joesailboat: What does “Through all of the Formosa History it has been under Chinese control at different points in history” actually mean? It is poorly worded. Your statements “all of the Formosa History” and “at different points in history” contradict one another. Having been to Taiwan as a guest of one of its premier academic centers and visiting several cities, I learned that most people feel connected with Japan, the US, southeast Asia and largely unconnected with China.
My favorite Econ professor in college was a native Chinese who graduated from the Catholic University in Peking in the mid- 1940s. When Mao forced the evacuation of Chinese who valued their freedom and escaped to Formosa under General Chaing Kai-Shek to form what they called the Republic of China established as the entity we call Taiwan today. My professor, although only in his 20s was named as the first director of the new country’s central bank. As the new government took shape he was replaced by a more experienced leader but he remained in the system until he decided to move to the US and earn a PhD. He was a CPA and an expert in international economics. I got to hear many tales of those early days and I only hope that China does not try to take the republic by force, as Putin has with the Ukraine. The current citizens will resist and much of value will be lost to the world, as it is now in the Ukraine.
The evacuation of those who wanted to continue their “freedom” to squeeze every last penny out of the already impoverished population.
Look at Chiang’s record – he was a warlord helped along by triads such as Big Eared Tu and such. Luce and the right-wing US establishment built him up as some freedom-loving Saint. That was so far from reality.
There was no democracy on the island until he and his brother died.
Based upon how easily the world looked the other way when China decided to accelerate its integration of Hong Kong (ahead of the previously agreed upon timeline); it is hard to imagine that the western world would be willing to go to war on behalf of democracy/the people of Taiwan.
However, from an economic perspective, the US is greedy and will want to protect the economic benefits that accrue to the US from Taiwan. At some point, however, keeping all “eggs in the Taiwan/Chinese basket” will result in excessive vulnerability to our economy- so decentralizing manufacturing will likely happen, even if it is inflationary.
One of the greatest risk to the US is that the Chinese ignore international intellectual property rights and steal our technology. I was extremely happy to read that Biden has imposed restrictions on selling semi conductors and chip making equipment to China. This can definitely slow the inevitable and buy valuable time to allow US manufacturing to partially relocate.
This trend is already in place:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/russellflannery/2022/10/05/taiwan-businesses-support-reduction-in-economic-ties-with-mainland–csis-survey/amp/
I have no idea how Xi will deal with China’s high unemployment rate among highly educated youth, but it seems that Xi is attempting to redirect the anger and frustration against Taiwan. It won’t take long to figure out if the Chinese obediently follow Xi- but that seems to be in their nature.
When Chaing Kai-Shek came to Taiwan, he ordered the execution of many ordinary citizens who were associated with Japan, especially educated people who had studied in Japan. Many (most?) Taiwanese citizens hated (& hate) Chaing Kai-Shek. Once he and his son were gone, the people of the country adopted democracy over time. My personal opinion is that the KMT is not loyal to the people of Taiwan and might accept rule by Beijing but the DPP represents the majority of the people of Taiwan.
It’s “splendid” to have the freedom to quibble about why violent invasion of a neighbor is really “historically okay” or to insinuate that US greed is the wrong reason to do the right thing.
Xi is a dictator and his hardline (hong kong, covid, etc) policies, on top of the overhangs from previous one-child and real estate bubble mistakes, will create many internal problems that, like Putin (declining oil oligarch in a kleptocracy), will require more and more extreme external scapegoats.
Didn’t we hear much the same arguments from Hitler when he was addressing the crowds while consolidating his power in Germany.