75 Minutes To Midnight
As you might imagine, the September jobs report was widely viewed as confirmatory for another outsized rate hike from the Fed at next month's policy gathering.
The latest dot plot telegraphed 125bps over this year's remaining meetings, although Jerome Powell was keen to emphasize that a "fairly large group" of officials still saw 100bps over the balance of 2022 as of last month.
I'd say it doesn't much matter which way the Fed goes in November (i.e., 50 or 75) but it actually does. Because in
” monetary policymakers are attuned to the impact that higher rates and a strong dollar are having on the global economy, ”
History suggests that is wishful thinking. Perhaps a couple of staffers are, but the voting governors?
thanks, H…always appreciate the “round the horn” perspectives…
The song remains the same: higher for longer.
Or maybe the tune is: much higher for much longer.