WSJ ‘Fed Whisperer’ Now Calling All The Shots
On a fateful Friday morning in mid-June, the Fed ran into trouble when an extremely unfavorable read on inflation and an equally disconcerting snapshot of consumer expectations for medium-term price growth were released back-to-back during policymakers' pre-meeting quiet period.
Taken together, the data suggested the Fed was even further behind the curve than they thought, but with no speaking engagements scheduled, and the window rapidly closing to shift market expectations ahead of the follow
Lots of navel gazing. Whatever, we will see soon enough.
I will be interested to see Powell’s outlook once 3 month- 10 -year yield spreads invert if they go 75. Powell has suggested he follows this spread closely……
H-Man, strange that the Fed would send this signal so far in advance of the meeting in late September. You would think they would wait until after the release of CPI and PPI next week which would still provide plenty of time to condition the market for .75. Maybe, just maybe, next weeks numbers are going to be a whopper? Or maybe benign and they want to signal a soft number will not churn any speculation about .50. Food for thought.
it’s all grist for the mill at this point…my read of Powell’s JH speech was two fold…1) he had one job which was to take the wind of the market rally sails away – check…, … 2) my additional read through was that Powell would prefer to raise by 50bps in September, as long as CPI under relative stability and financial conditions sufficiently tight…imho a 3rd 75bps hike will bludgeon any remaining positive sentiment out of the markets (new lows), glad I increased my short hedges during this last bear market rally…Timiraos may simply be floating a trial balloon to sow fear given we’re two weeks away…plenty of time for what’s done to be undone in our short attention span world…