The Bull-Bear
Not all bears are alike.
Take the American black bear, for example. They're typically shy, somewhat affable and, generally speaking, will choose berries, roots, grass and various sorts of insects over your leg when they're hungry. Grizzlies, on the other hand... well, suffice to say that "avoiding a conflict is easier than dealing with one," as the Interagency Grizzly Bear Committee euphemistically puts it, on an informational page.
On Wall Street too, there are different sorts of bears. Some
H-Man, we all know a bear market will become a bull market and vice-versa. Historically bull markets last longer by a wide margin than bear markets which tells you the probability of always being long is much better than being short. The problem always reverts to the same issue, when does the bull or bear end and when does the bull or bear begin? Fortunes are made and lost speculating on the ‘when”.
The reason I prefer bonds over stocks is that with bonds there is always a known “end.” A stock can go down and stay down forever. A good bond, such as a UST, will pay you the contract interest and par value on prescribed dates. That means that given a starting point, one can more easily predict what will happen to one’s money. This allows patient capital a known future. Besides the bear market is a bit cloudier here. Bond prices down? No problem. Rates are up and you’ll get your money back on a known date. Rates down, prices up. Love this stuff. The glass is always at least half full. BTW, I’m 65% fixed, 28% stocks and the rest cash. Total portfolio is down 6.5% for the year, beating the Dow and S&P.