A Bear Revisits August Of 2008
I think we all get the joke. Or jokes, plural.
Earnings are managed, management isn't inclined to disappoint investors and company analysts aren't inclined to cut forecasts until prompted by management. None of that's a secret, but occasionally, it makes sense to feign incredulity.
Typically, disconnects between rosy profit estimates and less rosy macro conjunctures get a dismissive eye roll and little else. Because, again, it's not a secret. As Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson put it Monday, "com
H-Man, I watched a video made some time back of Dalio interviewing Volcker. What I found interesting was that when he started jacking up rates in 1980, Volcker was scared to death in 1982 that it wasn’t working after two years. It did finally kick in in late 1982 but it supports what you and Wilson are saying, this is no quick fix especially when markets always seem to look at the world with rose colored glasses.
It’s not what they say, it’s what they do. Big Tech have not only reported less Ad revenue (or Netflix “we lost less subscribers than we thought”) but they’re trimming employees. These are the companies that have realtime data on everyone and every business.
I’m reminded of the quotes in 2021: Bezos, Musk, etc are selling stock when they said they’d never sell, maybe they know something?
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/01/ceos-and-insiders-sell-a-record-69-billion-of-their-stock.html