Mood Check: ‘Everything Is Better Than Feared!’
"Traders bet the bottom is in," one mainstream financial media outlet declared on Tuesday afternoon, following an absurd squeeze that catapulted the Nasdaq more than 3% higher into an illiquid summer tape.
I doubt the veracity of any explanation which posits a role for rationality or buying that wasn't mostly forced. The S&P traded above its 50-day moving average (figure below), there was a record short in US equity futures, CTAs have been aggressively covering and, more generally, moves li
Thin summer trading. Nothing fundamental.
People are puking OTM puts. My proof: VIX down on a 2.75% SPX day. People are throwing their Vol overboard, and Delta, Gamma, and Vanna are all pushing in the same direction.
We drove down to the Outer Banks last night to visit with some friends. The wait for every single decent place to eat down there was almost 2 hours. There were people crammed into every possible place you could imagine there. I don’t think we’ve hit a recession yet, hiking will continue into next year.
Hiking will continue until morale improves
would be so lost without your analysis of the market’s behavior on a daily/hourly basis. thank you.