Another Ominous Sign: Germany Logs First Trade Deficit Since 1991
Call it yet another sign of the times. And, perhaps, another ominous sign for the world's fourth largest economy.
Germany logged a trade deficit in May, according to data released on Monday. Imports rose nearly 3% from April, while exports slipped.
Adjusted for calendar and seasonal effects, Germany exported €125.8 billion in goods in May and imported goods worth €126.7 billion, leaving a deficit of almost €1 billion (figure below).
Germany's surplus has dwindled since February, when
Good articles over this long weekend, H. We’ve taken a sobering tour of our troubled world.
Returned home, suitcases unpacked, back to the screens Tuesday, and the question remains, Where to put money right now?
Let’s stick to vanilla long money, the other stuff makes my head hurt.
The possible candidates might be
– Cash
– Commodities
– China
– Credit
Cash is still not fashionable, amazingly.
Commodities are either going to collapse with global recession, or take off on an inflation-fueled supercycle, depending on who I listen to. Or maybe it’s just energy and food – the voices (in my head?) aren’t clear.
China may be “uninvestable” and companies only exist at the mercy of Xi, but stocks got cut in half and the government is stimulating with a 5.5% goal to hit. And you get to nervously ponder the Lorenzian question “does the sneeze of a child in Shenzen set off a portfolio drawdown in New York?”
Credit just had the worst 1H in – I’ve lost track, but a long time – and yields are finally meaningful. The obvious plan might be to leg in when the Fed is delivering its last couple of hikes. Obviousness usually wants to be front-run. Bad news is good. There’s no need to climb too far out the credit limb.
Anyone want to cross items from that list, or add to it, be my guest!
Your read on the state of affairs is good. When I fished the inside, it was always hard to wait until the tide was right or the storm had passed but patience was the virtue that would find the fish. That being said, is there any other choice but cash?