ECB Panics Four Business Days After Confirming Policy Pivot
The ECB has seen enough. Already.
Just four business days after confirming the imminent onset of a tightening cycle, the Governing Council called an emergency meeting, an apparent nod to the purported urgency of addressing fragmentation risk, as manifested in more than 40bps of widening in the spread between Italian and German bond yields over just a handful of sessions.
Italian bonds came under immense pressure in the aftermath of last week's policy meeting and press conference, at which Chri
Look at the LAST TWO DAYS:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/interestrate/liborusd12m/charts?countrycode=mr&mod=mw_quote_advanced
Yeah. Stuff’s happening. Ha. I mean, I don’t know what everyone expects here. You spend 12 years trying to suppress every market mechanism on Earth and then you abruptly decide to emancipate them. That’s going to be a harrowing experience.
The problem is that this isn’t a problem the ECB can “fundamentally” fix. This would require a true fiscal union in Europe.
Speaking of which, how does this stuff work in the US? Do states put out various bonds like cities/counties? If they do, is there a spread between, say, Mississippi and, err, California? Is it comparable to Italy vs. Germany?
It remains to be seen if the Federal Reserve can “fix” the inflation problems in the US while Congress/President does almost nothing to fix energy, food, supply chain problems. Fiscal and monetary coordination is required, but not happening. Hate to say it, but the best hope for the US is a Republican win in the mid term elections. Hard to believe that just a few years ago, the US was a net exporter of oil.
In this world of alternative facts, you may find this information helpful.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/The-US-Will-Be-A-Net-Oil-Importer-In-2022.html
“While the U.S. has been a net petroleum products exporter for more than a decade, it has always been a net crude oil importer, that is, it imports more crude than it exports.”
Here is a good example- CA& Florida bonds yield about 2% less than Illinois bonds (a state where people and businesses are leaving because of numerous problems in the state- mostly related to Chicago- where they are being highly taxed with minimal benefit).