‘The Most Chaotic Macroeconomic Times In Decades’

‘The Most Chaotic Macroeconomic Times In Decades’

"We live in the most chaotic, hard-to-predict macroeconomic times in decades," Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Economist, Seth Carpenter, wrote Sunday. Carpenter's assessment was simultaneously remarkable and rote. Notwithstanding a few well-known exceptions, sell-side  analysts avoid the appearance of hyperbole and write as though past is usually precedent. Declarations of new epochs or impending calamity are rare and to be sure, Carpenter ventured neither. But his tacit admission that, at leas
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5 thoughts on “‘The Most Chaotic Macroeconomic Times In Decades’

  1. I, too, wish we could get a dip in housing prices- I have a child looking for a one bedroom condo in Southern Cal. Everything that goes on the market is under contract within 2-3 days- in spite of the uptick in mortgage rates.
    I grew up in the midwest (not even a third tier city) and my childhood friend is a broker there. She told me that she gets calls from both individuals and investment funds (who live out of state), wanting to buy up to 20 houses- sight unseen- for rentals. This is absolute insanity, but not ending anytime soon.
    She also told me that many of the people looking for homes in their late 20’s- early 30’s have financial help from family. Her sense is that the wealth transfer to younger generations that historically has occurred upon elder family members’ death, is now partially occurring while the elders are still alive.

  2. For USA real estate, I wonder where the “silly” level is. We lived in Tokyo during the 70s and 80s where we witnessed a terrific stock and real estate bubble. 30+ years later, neither market has fully recovered. Does anyone remember why real estate was bid so high there? I don’t remember any talk of a housing shortage, supply chain disruption or labor shortage. When I started typing this comment, I thought the Tokyo real estate example offered hope for those waiting for saner prices in the USA. Now, I’m not so sure. Certainly the nominal value of the Nikkei offers no comfort! I hope everyone has a good Plan B!

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