Jobs Report Clears Path For Fed To Hike US Into Recession
The US economy added 431,000 jobs in March, the BLS said Friday.
It was another solid read on a hopelessly distorted labor market. Although the headline technically counted as a "miss," the range of estimates was wide and a ~60,000 deviation from consensus in the pandemic era isn't particularly shocking, especially on an otherwise upbeat print.
Sizable upward revisions to figures from January and February offered additional evidence of underlying strength, even as they made March's print look
I am all set (investing wise) for that “12-14 months from today”. Got the cash plus dividend income I need to get through until the Fed turns back on the IV.
Now, I know your gonna laugh, but since it’s April fool’s day, here’s my attempt at humor. This is my first attempt to suggest that the Fed’s total MBS holdings are a price divided into the 30 year mortgage rate. I was a thinking that maybe there’s a way to view this thing like a p/e ratio in terms of a valuation metric and where things might need to go in terms of normalized old trends.
If the Fed dumps it’s tsunami of MBS into the mortgage market, that’ll probably take some time to accomplish, but what happens on the other side of that equation when mortgage rates have spiked beyond 8% or wherever they’re going?
Fred link:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=NKko
The other possibility is that the economy cools down enough for the Fed to pause after one or a few hikes and for a slowdown or downturn to be mild. Not exactly a soft landing but maybe not a disaster. We shall see.