Proxy Wars
The Kremlin asked Xi Jinping for military assistance to bolster Russia's efforts in Ukraine, US officials said Sunday.
They declined to disclose the nature of the request other than to say Vladimir Putin asked for "equipment" and support. In addition, Moscow also asked Beijing for economic aid in a bid to help offset the impact of Western sanctions.
The news came as a Russian air strike killed nearly three-dozen people at a military training facility just a few miles from Poland's border. Prio
Anyone see any positive news towards resolution this weekend, that can be verified? Or was it a complete shutout (again)?
H-Man. there are rumblings that UKR and Russia want to do a deal. Crimea, the southern states revert to Russian control. It sounds like a deal may be struck. Stay tuned.
If there is a “deal”, it is not a real deal. They will either present it as a cease fire or a conclusion to the violence. Either way, Russia will resume attacks next Oct. Any imminent “deal” is solely because the spring thaw is coming and Russia has calculated they cannot complete their objectives in time.
The region is well known for marshy bog and heavy equipment needs frozen ground to advance.
Still entirely possible the prospect of a deal is simply another Russian ruse.
I expect a chemical weapons attack after this current push concludes. Each push usually lasts 7-10 days before they run out of ammo/food/fuel. After which an “operational” pause is needed to resupply. Wash, rinse, repeat.
I believe Putin believes a chemical weapons attack will yield greater concessions in a cease fire.
Interesting sideshow going on with Putin’s oil. Apparently it’s not the hottest brand going, at least for China, which is somewhat constrained by their immediate abilities to refine millions of barrels per day. Putin’s oil sort of has a major liquidity problem. LNG is a different story for the EU.
“With Asia as the only likely destination for a multi-million bb/d change in global crude flows, the dearth of new supertanker bookings for delivery to China is telling. Sinopec, one of the largest global purchasers of Urals crude, has added precisely zero new supertankers to its shipping commitments since the invasion.”
Interesting. Xi has to choose between the butcher of Ukraine or the rest of the world. Let’s see where his wallet (sorry) his heart goes.
One of the (many) bits I don’t get is how the sanctions fit in with a ceasefire, in the minds of the two parties. The sanctions are absolutely open-ended solely at the discretion of the west. But the Russians don’t seem to be trying to negotiate sanctions relief as part of the ceasefire negotiations; the necessary parties aren’t even at the table. They can’t seriously intend to end the war (and surrender their leverage) while leaving the west in position to end the sanctions based on arbitrary future demands, or never end them at all. I guess this backs up Hopium’s point: any ceasefire deal is likely just an intermezzo awaiting either the next phase of war and grabbing all Ukraine no matter the cost or, if we’re lucky, wider and broader negotiations between Russia and pretty much everybody else to reach a “final” settlement of the conflict that implements some new status quo regarding Russia, Ukraine and NATO, sanctions, reparations, etc.
If that’s the case, it may not matter much what the Ukrainians offer up now. It will all be a tossed salad again when the “real” negotiations begin that include the sanctioning countries. This would somewhat follow the pattern of the Russo-Georgian war in 2008, in which Russia simply declared victory after carving out tiny Abkhazia and South Ossetia, while agreeing to a ceasefire and limited withdrawal and leaving for the future wider international agreements to resolve, or not, as it has turned out, the security issues and the questions of whether or not these two regions were countries. The concrete result Russia got (and perhaps it was all that Putin wanted then) was that Georgia was effectively excluded from NATO. The current war is obviously more ambitious and thornier and I don’t think the Russians will walk away unscathed this time around. By the time they have run the multi-year gauntlet necessary to come to terms with 33 sanctioning countries and one new eternal enemy, they’ll be lucky to walk away with their sanity, much less the Donbas or anything more. And the status of NATO membership for Ukraine? Exactly the same status as pre-war, and has been for years: NATO isn’t offering. We’ll all say that never has less been achieved for so great a cost in human and economic suffering on the part of 190 million Ukrainians and Russians. Just baffling.