‘Geopolitics Is The Only Factor That Matters’
Equities entered the new week on shaky footing, as risk sentiment labored under the shadow of war, inflation and imminent Fed tightening.
I'd suggest February's CPI report, due Thursday, will take a backseat to the conflict in eastern Europe, but that wouldn't be quite accurate. The war threatens to exacerbate inflation, so if anything, the update on US consumer prices is now even more important.
Any deceleration may be dismissed as old news considering the surge in commodity prices, while a h
I give Putin a month. He can’t slaughter 40 million people in a month. He can’t expect everyone else in the world to accept his actions or look the other way. On the contrary.
Putin will never allow those soldiers to come home. Nothing short of China will stop this.
I wonder what Putin’s “Plan B” for dividing the West looks like?
Economic war of attrition? (…I can hold out with a suffering populace longer than you guys can) ???
Here’s one, what if Russia loses the conflict in ukraine. Not in the long term but I’m the coming days/weeks. What does a cornered Putin look like/act like?
I see what you’re driving at, but can’t envision an outright military “loss” within the next few weeks. Although stalled and sloppy and likely in need of a new approach, I don’t see how the Russian forces could be “pushed back” or completely choked off with respect to reinforcements or supplies. (but stalemate is certainly possible)
No military expert so I’ll ask. Does the amount of drones (or Polish planes) make a difference?
I was also reading contrary statements re. Russian aerial superiority. Someone was saying the Russian air force had been a non factor. They don’t dare fly high b/c of AA/CAD and flying low mean they can be targeted with Stingers.
OTOH, the Ukrainians were desperate to get a no fly zone decreed and enforced by NATO, they keep begging for planes. So clearly they seem concerned by Russian planes. And they should know.
So what’s going on there?
The bond market is telling you this is going to be a deflationary shock. Oil and commodity prices are telling you that this economic cycle is long in the tooth. Putin and his Belarus buddy are in deep trouble.
“Here Comes That Sinking Feeling”, by the Eurythmics, is my choice for music while watching the European index components fall like flaming red stars under a waxing new moon in this ominous cold, cold, desert night.
Look there falls ING through the black yonder! Damn that was to close for comfort! Will have to go see what’s left in the crater come morn. Whoa! Look there The Financial Services are really putting on meteor show!
Are there enough fools left to rush in, where angels fear to tread, this time to bounce the cat again before the close or on the next session? Maybe, but you’d think being a financial piñata must get old eventually.
Guess I’ll go look in on the Bitcoin bait before calling it an early one…. Oh Shiba baby beat me with a Chainlink till it bleeds! Hurts so good! Beat me till my body is a black and blue Polkadot, then, let’s Uniswap positions Shiba my sadomasochistic Queen! Hubba, Hubba, Hubba! … SSDD.
A session in the life of a bit coin trader at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4tXC05EkrCk
There’s a case to be made for demand destruction, wit spiking oil prices. Many people are adjusting their consumption behavior as prices skyrocket. Ultimately that decreased consumption in normal circumstances results in supply increases, but going forward, this situation is almost unprecedented and highly unpredictable.
I assume bonds are primarily adjusting to a flight to safety and also sensing decreased global growth, but that risk rebalancing seems entirely offset by oil shocks that will spill into everything.
The backdrop of instability will cause geopolitical hedging to be increasingly risky.
In terms of deflation or a recession related to housing, I see an all cash market ahead, slower price appreciation, but far higher demand and far greater upward movement. The demand for secure housing will be supercharged
In addition, where does one house 100 million refugees? The instability hasn’t started…
“In the past decade, the global refugee population has more than doubled. According to the UNHCR, 82.4 million people around the world have been forced to flee their homes”
Ain’t that the way it goes. When Politics finally gets around to moving markets with it’s tipping point nudge over the edge things always accelerate faster than anybody ever expected…. Dividend returns are starting to sing their siren songs in value traps, but, one of war’s (the real deal type of war that is) first victims is dividends. With the dividend damage worsening the nearer a stock’s proximity to the mayhem as the C-suite begins to build their ‘war-chests.’ I suppose, with the ‘normal’ smaller scale skirmishes that would be good news for US dividend stocks (VIG and VYM are still holding up fairly well last time I looked) except for the fact any serious response to the March of the Axis Powers requires direct and immediate involvement of the US…. Thing is Putin has demonstrated a willingness to weaponize everything since ~2004. Every agreement, law, or treaty, supposedly binding or not, has been weaponized against the opposing signatories by Putin at this point. The latest stunning example is Putin’s claims he wants to open safe corridors for refugees. Then, within a few days it is revealed all routes only lead to Russia! Presumably gulags. There is not a word, the now useless language lawyers can draw up on fancy parchment, that Putin won’t weaponize against the fools that think ink matters more than blood at this point.