Goldman Sees Risks To US Economy From Ukraine War
"The growth drag from oil prices alone is about 0.2pp based on the move so far," Goldman's Joseph Briggs wrote, in an updated analysis of the prospective impact on the US economy from the conflict in Ukraine.
That drag would rise to more than 0.5pp if crude jumped to $150/bbl, a scenario Goldman called "a possibility in the event of further escalation or a longer supply disruption."
The bank's "rule of thumb" is that a 10% rise in crude prices boosts core and headline inflation by 3.5bps and 2
If Garry Kasperov is correct, we ain’t seen nothin’ yet, and WWIII may have already begun…
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kasparov-calls-world-powers-throw-russia-back-into-stone-age-2022-03-03/
I don’t see that the linked article mentions WWIII. Did I miss something?
Kasparov mentions it at the outset of the video. It’s one of the first things he says.
Russian roulette with nuclear plants, terrorism and the core weapon of geopolitical oil. The looming inflationary impacts of spiking energy costs after a global pandemic increases Putin’s success in causing widespread instability and fragility.
Unfortunately the only way to slow down this avalanche is to starve Putin’s cash flow and totally destroy his ability to trade oil and destroy partnerships with countries that are willing to support him. We have be willing to face the reality of that cost, but choice is there?
Meanwhile:
It now costs about $3.5 million to hire a tanker to deliver a million barrels to Italy from Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk — a voyage that should take no longer than a week. That’s a more-than 300% gain from before the invasion of Ukraine began.
Meanwhile, India is hard at work creating special purpose vehicles to help Putin…. Not good!