‘Inflation, Disease, War’
"World's top economies confront inflation, disease, war," one Sunday headline read.
When G-20 finance ministers and central bankers meet in Jakarta this week, those are the topics they'll be compelled to discuss. Again: Inflation, disease and war.
These are trying times for humanity. And so far, the best efforts of politicians, policymakers and scientists to stave off calamity have met with mixed results.
Fiscal and monetary policy averted a global depression, but now we have rampant inflatio
Based on the USSR’s experience in Afghanistan and the U.S. experience in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, Putin should think long and hard about invading Ukraine. Making predictions is a fools game, but (here goes) one could make a good case that an occupied Ukraine will turn out to be the Putin regime’s graveyard. (And good riddance, if it comes to pass.)
This isn’t that, though. Nobody wanted to commandeer Afghanistan, Vietnam or Iraq. It wasn’t about conquest. This would be a literal, old school takeover bid.
I once saw a pack of Lion Dogs back a big Cat up a tree. By the time it was over No Lion in sight just Four downed Dogs and a lot of noise .. Time to understand the other point of view and put on the other guys shoes for a short bit . The world is changing a lot faster than we think…
Taiwan is a much different deal than Ukraine both geographically (water boundry), optics, opponents and value. Taiwan semiconductor has become an indespensible asset to many different entities around the world. Sure China could invade- typically the Chinese prefer to surround their prey and give it a bear hug over the long run. And a Chinese invasion would be very costly militarily- you think South Korea and Japan would not want to react let alone the US? Compared to the Ukraine, Taiwan has much more economic importance to the rest of the world. The Russians have a long history of being overrun by outside forces- it is this history that makes them sensitive and aggressive if they think a rival is nearby- it is their fear that drives their aggression. Odds are pretty high something bad will happen in Ukraine via the Russians- costs are high for the Russians too- but not nearly as high as China/Taiwan. The odds of China doing the same in Taiwan are much lower.
“Inflation, disease and war.” Wow, that list is starting to look like the Four Horseman are starting to ride.
“One simple question that’s rarely, if ever, asked, is why a world that came to depend so heavily on specialization, just-in-time and cross-border trade never bothered to establish a set of emergency mechanisms and failsafes to backstop the system in a crisis.”
Adaptive systems like economies, social organizations and other goal-oriented structures which seek equilibrium are subject to the “Law of Requisite Variety” which mandates that in order to maintain equilibrium, all adaptive systems must maintain sufficient resources to respond to any environmental disturbances that knocks them out of balance. While specialized mechanisms may quickly solve such problems an infinite number would be required and that’s not really practical. There are three resources that can replace many others: money, information and smart people with much generalized knowledge. The trouble is these resources are expensive and while having them available and sitting around is a good idea, it has a high opportunity cost so we don’t do it. The reason JIT is so popular is that it cuts the cost of system operation. The reason it is bad is that without some slack any system is at increased risk of collapse — the reason so many people died when the Titanic went down. Evening clothes were just not warm enough to stave off hypothermia. One other flaw in our system is not the lack of a safety-valve mechanism as much as the politics that inevitably disrupts the ability to implement it. So we will inevitably screw up our system — the one where humans manage the earth perfectly — because we thrive on short-term gain and the right to disagree with everyone, about everything.
+1
Trying times to say the least … from my perspective I saw the US 2003 invasion of Iraq a “pure war of conquest” as it was based upon lies and greed… while I also opposed the US war in Afghanistan at least there was logic to it … both these horrific interventions have contributed to the present global situation, which is dire… actions do indeed have consequences… also hoping Putin fails miserably as he must be confronted and humanity must change its ways, US and western world included…thoughts and well wishes to the people of Ukraine who deserve better…
When confronted with an existential crisis All Nations act the same way irregardless . Putin is doing what he must do and that is something. Way to much talk about First Strike Capability from the adversary that brought on Iraq , Afghanistan , Libya and too many other wars to ignore that fact.
H-Man, this war (if Russia invades) will be over in three days. The market will puke but nothing like Pearl Harbor or 9/11 where the market went down 5% the day after. So a new line will be drawn between Russia and NATO.