Draining The Pool
Markets felt apprehensive Monday ahead of holidays in Asia and a bevy of key US data due over the course of the week.
Equities were ready to whisper January a not-so-fond adieu. It's been a rough stretch.
Global stocks were down more than 6% for the month, the worst showing since the onset of the pandemic. The Nasdaq Composite was on pace for its worst January ever (figure below).
You can thank surging US real yields for that. In fact, you can thank the 50bps jump in reals for the entirety
H-Man, the fed may need several sump pumps.
Is there any scenario where this ends well for equities while draining the pond?
What’s so magical about 25 or 50? Why not 35-40?
Wonder if Fed actually wants predictable, slow, and consistent. Powell went out of his way to emphasize urgency, and others like Bostic are getting trotted out to not rule out 50bp and/or every meeting.
3800 is next support level on SP50, pretty logical level to watch.