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Month: January 2022

Tapping The Brakes

January 31, 2022February 1, 2022

The doves were out Monday, and not a moment too soon for US equities which,

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4 Comments on Tapping The Brakes

Making Sense Of The Recent Stock Roller Coaster

January 31, 2022February 7, 2022

I’m a bit of a broken record sometimes, but only (or mostly, anyway) because in

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You Do The Math

January 31, 2022February 1, 2022

There’s considerable angst about the prospect that the Fed is too late. Not so much

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3 Comments on You Do The Math

‘Classic Bear Market Action’ (And The Real ‘Fed Put’ Question)

January 31, 2022February 7, 2022

At least one widely-followed Wall Street strategist is undeterred in harboring a cautious outlook on

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3 Comments on ‘Classic Bear Market Action’ (And The Real ‘Fed Put’ Question)

Draining The Pool

January 31, 2022January 31, 2022

Markets felt apprehensive Monday ahead of holidays in Asia and a bevy of key US

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4 Comments on Draining The Pool

‘Don’t Fight The Fed’ Is Now A Bear’s Mantra

January 30, 2022January 31, 2022

The good news for dip-buyers after the most turbulent period for US equities since the

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3 Comments on ‘Don’t Fight The Fed’ Is Now A Bear’s Mantra

S&P Correction: Here’s What Comes Next

January 30, 2022January 31, 2022

Contrary to what you may be inclined to believe if you conceptualize of stocks as

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2 Comments on S&P Correction: Here’s What Comes Next

Snowballs In Hell

January 30, 2022February 4, 2022

Expectations for an angry, vengeful, hawkish Fed shift will be weighed against top-tier US data

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4 Comments on Snowballs In Hell

The ‘Ultimate Pain Trade’

January 29, 2022January 31, 2022

No one is talking about the inevitable dovish pivot. Or almost no one, anyway. In

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7 Comments on The ‘Ultimate Pain Trade’

Crying Over Expensive Milk (No More Free Lunch)

January 29, 2022February 1, 2022

Let’s be clear about something: The Fed has abandoned the idea that it’s possible to

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2 Comments on Crying Over Expensive Milk (No More Free Lunch)

Goldman Ramps Up Fed Call, Nomura Sees 50bps Blast Off

January 29, 2022February 5, 2022

Since bringing forward their liftoff forecast by “one full year” in late October, Goldman has

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10 Comments on Goldman Ramps Up Fed Call, Nomura Sees 50bps Blast Off

‘The Quickest Route To Recession’ (And A Case Of Cognitive Dissonance)

January 28, 2022January 30, 2022

The stock market isn’t the economy. We say that all the time. It’s almost a

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7 Comments on ‘The Quickest Route To Recession’ (And A Case Of Cognitive Dissonance)

Curtin’s Warning: Americans May ‘Misinterpret’ Fed Hikes

January 28, 2022January 29, 2022

There was no improvement in US consumer sentiment during the back half of January. In

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6 Comments on Curtin’s Warning: Americans May ‘Misinterpret’ Fed Hikes

Stagflation Spotted In Crucial US Comp, Spending Data

January 28, 2022February 13, 2022

Compensation costs for US workers rose less than expected in Q4, closely-watched data out Friday

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5 Comments on Stagflation Spotted In Crucial US Comp, Spending Data

Germany Stares At Recession As Economy Contracts

January 28, 2022January 30, 2022

An image of “traffic at a street junction in Berlin” sat atop one outlet’s summary

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1 Comment on Germany Stares At Recession As Economy Contracts

‘Initial Volatility’ Has Governments Nervous In Asia

January 28, 2022January 28, 2022

A few key Asian markets managed to rebound on Friday after falling into corrections and

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Leave a Comment on ‘Initial Volatility’ Has Governments Nervous In Asia

If Stocks Don’t Get Him, The Curve Might

January 27, 2022January 28, 2022

Thursday’s overarching narrative was that this time around, Jerome Powell isn’t going to bend the

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9 Comments on If Stocks Don’t Get Him, The Curve Might

‘Bring Back Volcker’

January 27, 2022January 30, 2022

I doubt seriously that prominent investors actually care about inflation vis-à-vis Fed policy. And why

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10 Comments on ‘Bring Back Volcker’

Is The US Headed For A ‘Transitory’ Recession?

January 27, 2022February 8, 2022

Mercifully, US jobless claims retreated in the week to January 22, snapping a streak of

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2 Comments on Is The US Headed For A ‘Transitory’ Recession?

US Economy Outperforms, Validating Hawkish Fed

January 27, 2022January 30, 2022

The US economic expansion picked up in the fourth quarter, data out Thursday showed. The

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7 Comments on US Economy Outperforms, Validating Hawkish Fed

Panic Selling Grips Asia As Stocks, Bonds Plunge On Hawkish Powell

January 27, 2022January 27, 2022

Jerome Powell’s press conference performance, and particularly the Chair’s multiple references to this cycle being

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9 Comments on Panic Selling Grips Asia As Stocks, Bonds Plunge On Hawkish Powell

Humble Stumbles

January 26, 2022February 2, 2022

Jerome Powell on Wednesday emphasized that the Fed will be “humble” and “nimble” as it

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12 Comments on Humble Stumbles

Fed Nods To March Hike, Sketches QT With Runoff ‘Principles’

January 26, 2022January 27, 2022

Inflation in the world’s largest economy is still “elevated,” the January FOMC statement said. That’s

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10 Comments on Fed Nods To March Hike, Sketches QT With Runoff ‘Principles’

Dovish Hawks Or Hawkish Doves? McElligott On The Fed

January 26, 2022January 27, 2022

Plainly, Jerome Powell risked further destabilizing fragile US equities at the January FOMC press conference.

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Key Ratio Points To 15% S&P Upside, One Bank Says

January 26, 2022January 26, 2022

January’s stock swoon isn’t out of sync with fundamentals and played out largely as expected

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1 Comment on Key Ratio Points To 15% S&P Upside, One Bank Says

Goldman: Any Further Significant Weakness Is A Buying Opportunity

January 26, 2022February 1, 2022

Markets were choppy again Wednesday as January’s epic swings continued unabated. Needless to say, traders

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2 Comments on Goldman: Any Further Significant Weakness Is A Buying Opportunity

New Home Sales Surge, Median Price Drops Most Ever

January 26, 2022January 27, 2022

New home sales were higher than expected in December, data out Wednesday suggested. It was

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1 Comment on New Home Sales Surge, Median Price Drops Most Ever

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Monthly Letter+

  • Deterioration, Dissolution And Default

    May 29, 2023May 29, 2023

Week’s News

Dam It

June 6, 2023June 7, 2023

Zeitgeist 2023

June 3, 2023June 5, 2023

US Jobs Report Is Goldilocks With Caveat

June 2, 2023June 3, 2023

Rallies And Epochs

May 31, 2023June 1, 2023

China’s Rebound ‘Over’ Amid Dour Data, ‘Miserable’ Stocks

May 31, 2023June 2, 2023

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Monthly Letters

Deterioration, Dissolution And Default

May 29, 2023May 29, 2023

Reinventing Wheels

April 23, 2023May 29, 2023

Lost At Sea

March 11, 2023April 29, 2023

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