With markets on tenterhooks for an update that passes for authoritative vis-à-vis the efficacy of existing COVID vaccines against the Omicron variant that catalyzed a bout of cross-asset turmoil beginning after the Thanksgiving holiday in the US, Pfizer delivered on Wednesday.
Lab tests show three doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech shot neutralize the variant.
The results, described as preliminary, will likely bolster market sentiment, although I’d reiterate that between the proximity of year-end, angst around the December FOMC meeting and myriad cross-currents, there’s quite a bit of noise, and it has the potential to drown out and otherwise overwhelm fundamental drivers to the extent a given day’s price action doesn’t necessarily reflect the balance of the news flow.
According to Pfizer, “an initial laboratory study” demonstrated that serum antibodies induced by the company’s vaccine “neutralize the Omicron variant after three doses.” More specifically, a press release said “sera obtained from vaccinees one month after receiving the booster vaccination neutralized the Omicron variant to levels that are comparable to those observed for the wild-type SARS-CoV-2 spike protein after two doses.”
In short, you need a booster if you want the same level of protection against Omicron that a two-dose sequence conferred against the original virus.
Pfizer went on to say that those who received two doses of the vaccine exhibited “more than a 25-fold reduction in neutralization titers against the Omicron variant compared to wild-type” on average, suggesting two doses “may not be sufficient to protect against infection with the Omicron variant.”
However (and this is also market-friendly, not to mention good news more generally), the press release said that because the “vast majority of epitopes targeted by vaccine-induced T cells are not affected by the mutations in Omicron,” Pfizer and BioNTech currently believe “vaccinated individuals may still be protected against severe forms of the disease.”
Here again, the booster is critical. “A third dose also strongly increases CD8+ T cell levels against multiple spike protein epitopes which are considered to correlate with the protection against severe disease,” the company said, adding that “compared to the wild-type virus, the vast majority of these epitopes remain unchanged in the Omicron spike variant.”
Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla and BioNTech chief Ugur Sahin were unequivocal about the utility of booster shots.
“It’s clear from these preliminary data that protection is improved with a third dose of our vaccine,” Bourla said. Notably, he also suggested that even without a booster, the two-dose course “may still” protect individuals from severe illness associated with Omicron infection.
Sahin chimed in: “Our preliminary, first dataset indicate that a third dose could still offer a sufficient level of protection from disease of any severity caused by the Omicron variant.”
Obviously, data collection is ongoing. And real-world effectiveness is yet to be determined in any systematic way. Still, despite being far from definitive, the Pfizer press release was a semblance of authoritative and offers market participants something other than anecdotes.
There’s no change to Pfizer’s timeline on an Omicron-specific shot. Development “will continue” despite what I think it’s fair to describe as reasonably reassuring lab tests on the efficacy of a three-dose regimen of the existing shots.
The first batches of a Pfizer-BioNTech Omicron vaccine “are planned to be ready for deliveries within 100 days,” Pfizer said Wednesday. (Just in case.)
LOVE the illustration, sir!
I never know what the shelf life is for the header images. I try not to use the same one more than five or six times in a year, so I’m constantly creating new ones. I’ve used that one at least a half-dozen times in 2021, so I actually created a new one for this little update, but since you like it, I’ll keep the mask / smilies
The mask in the illustration is a good reminder and reiterated by Health professionals this morning.
Mask up. Colds and flu’s are not fun either
Agreed! I have greatly enjoyed flying on an airplane, and NOT having a regular cold the following week. Even if COVID were to magically disappear some day (…like a former Commander In Chief once pontificated it would), I’ll be masking up on airplanes (and in theater settings, etc.) from here on out.
30 million Americans refuse to get even a single COVID vaccine shot. Cases, hospitalizations, and deaths will continue to climb as we head into 1Q22. I’m tempted to call it a tragedy, but if you insist on going swimming when riptide warning have been posted and you drown, whose to blame?
At this point I am simply done with vaccine denialism, I shit you not I had an acquaintance sell their house so they would be able to lose their job and not have to get vaccinated after the Biden vaccine mandate went into effect. Sold their house and moved in with their inlaws so they could go without an income. They have two small children and would go to having zero income to preserve their ideological ‘purity’. There is no rational discourse with this mentality.
MFN, the tragedy in your analogy is the lifeguard who has to risk his/her own responsible life trying to save the MORON who ignored the warnings. It’s tempting to throw out the Darwinism line at the morons, but unfortunately many will be let off the hook by the outstanding folks in our medical settings. This is a morbid thought, but what if hospitals were “allowed” to deny care to the unvaxxed ?
Does anyone question the motives behind a company whose fortunes are tied to making money on vaccines telling us that they have sorted this out and don’t worry?
Of course but what else is new? It could be a lie but it’s not illogical to consider that a vaccine booster would improve resistance. Heck you need an annual flu shot just to keep up with the flu and this thing seems quite a bit faster mutating or at least is more contagious giving it more opportunities. I doubt the booster will be the end of it because even if they are telling the truth most of the world is unvaccinated so we’re going to get zeta-zeta eventually at the rate we’re going.
PFE is not the only one who can test BNT162 vs Omicron, so dissembling would be unproductive.
What a great stream of posts. Thanks to all of you, as well as our Dear Enabler!
Pfizer report has not been peer reviewed so until it’s reviews we can consider the CEO just talking his book!
It’s not been peer reviewed yet, that is true, but it’s not implausible that booster shots of an already effective vaccine improve efficacy. Also, given the amount of attention given to these kind of statements I very much doubt they are going out on a limb and/or are simply freestyling. They surely cannot afford that.
Also, I seriously doubt there is any need for them to “talk their book”. Have a look at the chart of BionTechs stock and you’ll see why.
While booster efficacy vs Omicron is welcome news to those who are vaccinated, for some time now Covid in the US has been largely a pandemic of the unvaccinated, who contribute almost all of the hospitalizations and deaths.
So consider what we know about Omicron’s effect on the unvaxed.
1) Prior infection with Wuhan/Delta/other variant provides very little protection against Omicron.
2) Omicron appears to be 2-3x more transmissible than Delta.
3) Omicron may cause less severe disease than Delta – or it may not, we don’t know yet and hospitalizations andexcess deaths in the most affected province of SA are starting to hook up.
1) means that Omicron will have its way with the unvaxed. They get to be unlucky twice.
2) means that more unvaxed will get Omicron than got Delta.
3) means that Omicron will cause more hospitalizations and deaths than Delta.
That is regardless of whether Omicron causes less severe disease or not.
Why? Because transmission – or spread – is exponential while severity is linear.
In the first few transmission cycles, the less-severe variant will result in fewer hosp/deaths. After enough transmission cycles, the more-transmissible variant has caused so many times more cases that even if the percent of cases that are severe is smaller, the total number of severe cases is higher. Model it out.
Yes, the vaccination rate is higher than when Delta started surging, and the vaccinated are getting boosters. But there’s still somewhere around 100 million unvaccinated in the US (ballpark, without looking up the exact #) and that is plenty enough for a grim winter.
If the market is starting to put Omicron behind it – which the last couple days look like – that is, in my view, a mistake.
Treat this like prior Covid surges and be defensive until “peak Omicron” is in sight, is my feeling. Regardless of Santa’s imminence or the alluring bargains in stocks now merely 30X sales, I’m still in derisking mode.
Thanks JYL. Much appreciated.