Last week, I wrote that seemingly everyone has coalesced around some variation on a bearish
Month: October 2021
‘Epidemic’ Is A Relative Term
Traders and investors were greeted by proliferating coverage of China’s latest COVID outbreak as the
Rational Decision-Making
Referendums and elections are always about human feelings, not about human rationality. If democracy were
‘It’s Come To This’: Beyond The Great Supply Chain Crisis
If rates are losing the plot due to the impossibility of mapping the interplay between
Stagflation Week (Losing The Plot)
The market’s stagflation obsession will be on full display this week as GDP reports out
‘The System Has Become Over-Optimized’
In “Underestimating The Biggest Risk Of All,” I contextualized the Bank of England’s rate hike
Underestimating The Biggest Risk Of All
I doubt Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan was aware of this when he compelled central bank
Never Call The Top
Global equities enjoyed the largest inflow in five weeks as US stocks trekked towards new
US Inflation Shows ‘No Signs Of Abating’ In October
US services sector activity was more robust than anticipated in early October. Or something. It’s
UK Faces Nightmare Dilemma With Inflation Gauge At 25-Year High
Never miss an opportunity to use the word “century” in a headline. That’s especially applicable
Finding $83.5 Million
Evergrande found $83.5 million. With just days to go before the grace period on a
A Heroic Powell Restores Public Faith In The Fed
“This is huge news,” someone on Bloomberg Television declared, as the network interrupted a live
What If Nothing Is ‘Transitory’?
“Buyers likely want to secure a home before mortgage rates increase even further next year,”
‘Enemy’ Of Interest Rates Tempts Fate. Again
In yet another exceptionally ill-advised, albeit wholly predictable, move, Turkey cut rates again on Thursday.
The Maddening Trudge To A Suboptimal Normal
A week after dropping below 300,000, US jobless claims fell again to a new pandemic-era
Evergrande Moves Closer To The Abyss
Update: On Friday, Evergrande reportedly paid the $83.5 million bond interest referenced below Evergrande was
The Market’s ‘Fab Five’
Via Macro Risk Advisors (Tune into the Alpha Exchange podcast) Celebrating 30 Years of the
Simply Saying ‘China’
When it comes to tail risks, there’s inflation, there’s China and then there’s everything else.
Why Higher?
A few days ago, I reiterated the absolute necessity of taking systematic trading and mechanistic
Jens Weidmann Has Left The Building
Jens Weidmann resigned as Bundesbank President today, effective December 31. Some years ago, when I
Cognitive Dissonance And The Bond Bears
If you’re the type who thinks it’s a contrarian indicator when seemingly everyone coalesces around
‘A Critical Phase Shift Is Occurring In Real-Time’
If you needed yet another piece of incremental evidence to support any iteration of the
Empathy For The Bedeviled
Economists and policymakers have the luxury of spending their days debating the meaning of the
America’s Housing Conundrum Persisted In September
Housing starts fell last month, data out Tuesday showed. Typically, I’d offer a one-sentence explanation,
$1.3 Trillion Is Now Least Bullish In A Year, Key Survey Shows
Investors are the least bullish in a year. That was the headline takeaway from the
Scary Stories
Thank god for the flattener. Monday’s action in rates breathed life into what might have
‘Bad-flation’
The bear flattening impulse seen across global bonds to start the week felt ominous. If
