Chinese Economy Decelerates Amid Crises

Chinese Economy Decelerates Amid Crises

The Chinese economy decelerated in the third quarter, data out Monday confirmed, validating a chorus of analyst downgrades and underscoring the impact of multiple overlapping crises. Although widely expected and well telegraphed, China's slowdown casts a long shadow. The specter of "peak growth" haunts the global economy and is an obsession of sorts for market participants at a time when Western policymakers are keen to roll back emergency stimulus and otherwise tighten policy in the face of pe
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4 thoughts on “Chinese Economy Decelerates Amid Crises

  1. Or maybe they couldn’t keep the false growth trajectory going. We can’t really know how accurate data out of China is and official/state data should be considered more propaganda straight out of the Ministry of Plenty than actual information. We do know they have over built with estimates of empty buildings ranging from 20-40%. How good are those numbers? It is also believed that China’s population has peaked and is currently in decline. No country with a declining population has ever had 4%+ GDP growth. The caveat being for China, as an emerging economy, the real calculation needs to be growth of the consumer class with previous non-consumers (agrarian peasants) being converted to consumers means the consumer base can still be growing as the converts can offset the decline in overall population. But how long until the economy matures and runs out of peasants to convert? Has it already? There’s a 90% chance that the Chinese real estate bubble is the cause of the next GFC. It’s just a question of when, how bad, and for how long. 100 years ago, the US was the global supply of cheap labor. The faltering of this dominant emerging market economy’s stock market spun the whole world into economic crisis. For now though, there’s nothing to worry about so let’s all enjoy TINA while we can.

      1. Ugh, yeah. Good point. But that would push us further down the road towards WWIII mapping very closely to the geo politics of early 20th century. We could equate it to the Japanese invasion of Manchuria.

  2. Can you talk about how (in)accurate the data is and contrast with the economic data coming out of the US/developed economies? There is bad data “on both sides” but would really enjoy hearing your thoughts on the matter.

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