A Tangled Mess Of Optimism And Uncertainty
I had it pre-written.
I was all set to serve up a delightfully sarcastic take on a further deceleration in US factory activity.
Here's how it was going to go:
"Peak growth!" Shouted someone, somewhere.
The latest snapshot of US manufacturing suggested the world's largest economy is cooling off, fanning the flames of hyperbolic narratives about an autumn mini-recession and the coming stagflationary quagmire.
Alas, I was forced to go in a different direction when ISM manufacturing managed to
The data is confusing right now, so investors need to focus on the “big picture” stuff they do know – or are willing to infer/predict – and position accordingly. Trying to trade every disjointed data point seems, well, too challenging.
On August 30, WHO added Mu, another covid variant of interest. First identified in Columbia, it has been found in 39 countries.
Accordingly to WHO’s statement, “The variant contains genetic mutations that indicate natural immunity, current vaccines or monoclonal antibody treatments may not work as well against it as they do against the original ancestral virus”
However, WHO’s statement also included this passage: “Since its first identification in Colombia in January 2021, there have been a few sporadic reports of cases of the mu variant and some larger outbreaks have been reported from other countries in South America and in Europe,” the bulletin said. “Although the global prevalence of the mu variant among sequenced cases has declined and is currently below 0.1%, the prevalence in Colombia (39%) and Ecuador (13%) has consistently increased.” So it could be complicated. Speculating baldly, it seems possible that Delta is more infectious and outcompeted Mu in the early part of the year. But perhaps the success of Mu in Colombia and Ecuador is related to an increased ability to reinfect people who have already been infected with other variants, or have been vaccinated. We’ll find out, in time.
Regarding ongoing supply chain issues: It’s been a year and a half since the COVID-related supply chain issues began. They aren’t going away right away, it’s now clear. Add to this the upheaval in the Chinese economy, and possibly long-term increases in the costs associated with shipping. Why don’t we see more announcements of investment in US (or at least North American) manufacturing capacity? Especially with increased automation to offset (or avoid) higher labor costs, I would think that it’s about time for this to happen.