No Needles Were Moved

353,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, slightly higher than the previous week’s upwardly-revised 349,000 level, which marked a pandemic-era low.

Consensus expected 350,000, so there were no surprises on the headline.

The four-week moving average fell to 366,500, another new “since March 14, 2020” low (figure below).

Continuing claims were 2.862 million for the week of August 14. That was higher than estimates. The market wanted 2.77 million.

The rise in initial claims was the first in five weeks (figure below), but there was nothing in the data to get excited about.

Initial Pandemic Unemployment Assistance claims rose, while ongoing PUA and PEUC claims were 5,004,753 and 3,793,956, respectively, for the week ended August 7. It’s the same story: 11.7 million Americans are receiving some kind of benefits.

Meanwhile, revisions to Q2 GDP were largely devoid of surprises. The economy expanded at a 6.6% annual rate. Economists wanted 6.7%. (Yawn.) Personal consumption was 11.9% versus 11.8% initial and 12.2% expected. (Yawn again.) Core PCE was unchanged.

These figures had no hope of altering the macro outlook anyway, so it’s just as well they printed inline pretty much across the board.

Commenting Thursday morning on Jackson Hole, BMO’s Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery noted that “mounting Delta concern has lessened the odds the Fed errs on the side of signaling a more aggressive retreat from policy accommodation than is already priced into financial markets.”

“In fact,” they wrote, “the Chair’s most likely course of action is to offer a balanced update on progress out of the pandemic, emphasize the relevance of the inoculation campaign for economic performance, and acknowledge the tapering agenda remains intact.”

Read more: Pain. Or The Avoidance Thereof