Delta Spillovers By The Outdoor Bar

With the Delta variant running rampant, you might be asking yourself whether sundry supply chain disruptions which may have otherwise been on the cusp of resolving, will now linger. Or begin to worsen anew. I mean, not really. It's mid-August. Odds are, that's the last question you're asking yourself if you've been any semblance of successful as a market participant. Hopefully, you're wandering (bleary-eyed) down to the outdoor bar at a beachfront hotel somewhere, where you'll order a shot of

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2 thoughts on “Delta Spillovers By The Outdoor Bar”

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Inflation second derivative was already negative and first derivative now zero-ish. “Peak inflation” soon to be in the rearview mirror.

Delta still rising fast, but US curve just starting to round over on a log scale, i.e. second derivative maybe getting closer to zero. “Peak Delta” in early September?

Some fiscal stimulus coming with the bipartisan infrastructure bill. Not a huge amount, but cracks the door open to a big slug of fiscal stimulus with the reconciliation. $2-3TR of “social infrastructure” spend is going to have way more short term impact than $0.5TR of “physical infrastructure” spend. Even if the stock plays on childcare etc are less obvious.

Shift of economy from early-stage recovery to more mid-cycle expansion is underway, but investors did a lot of portfolio and expectations readjustment so now stocks like LUV can guide down but trade up.

Enough hints and previews of Fed action being more and sooner, that September FOMC meeting could be like LUV guiding down.

I’m supposed to spend the coming two weeks vacationing on a lake, but it is looking like I’ll just be working from a new location.