Conniving Oracles

Conniving Oracles

We really should stop attributing self-awareness and a sense of purpose to the bond market. Admittedly, I do it too, but only because it's convenient when it comes to penning daily market commentary. The bond market doesn't exist "out there" somewhere. It can't "tell us" anything and it never "knows" something we don't. There's no such thing as "the bond market" outside of the people and machines who comprise it. Rates react and respond. They don't think and scheme. Nor are they capable of pos
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5 thoughts on “Conniving Oracles

  1. The idea that the U.S. economy was fundamentally restructured by the pandemic to a degree where annualized 4+, or even 3+, GDP prints is our immediate (1-3 years) future is ridiculous. The fact of the matter is that until Congress (I’m looking at you Mitch McConnell) admits that our political economy has been pulled way right over the last forty years (aka the Friedman/Reagan revolution) to serve the interests of capital at the expense of ordinary Americans, we will be stuck in a low-growth economy that unfairly distributes a wildly disproportionate share of our collective efforts to the top 1 percent.

    1. Clearly, Mitch doesn’t care what is happening to “ordinary Americans.” He and his wife have become the kinds of Plutocrats that just don’t go to ordinary.

  2. As you say, it’s a figure of speech but it does make sense for a single investor to ponder “what is the market telling me/what does it know that I missed”?

    Here, “it” refers to the whole traders + algo universe of which that trader is but a microscopic part of (unless he/she’s the Fed head of bond trading… 🙂 )

  3. “:It” is what it is. When Benjamin Graham imagined Mr. Market in 1949, he never anticipated a 24 hour news cycle with 24 hour trading and 24-hour social media babble; what would he make of markets today? TMI? I find myself watching way less of tout TV, reading less, but more selectively, yet feeling better about my trading.

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