“US states with older populations, higher incomes, lower religion shares, and higher Democratic vote shares have higher demand,” Goldman wrote, in a new note dedicated to the implications of COVID vaccine hesitancy for economic forecasting.
That brief quote captures quite a bit in just a few words. And it probably stirred up an emotional response in many readers.
I’ve addressed vaccine hesitancy in these pages on too many occasions to count since it became clear last year that the world was about to embark on a massive inoculation push. It was clear from the beginning which demographics in the US were least likely to get a shot.
The juxtaposition between, on one hand, Donald Trump’s eagerness to win the vaccine race and take credit for immunizing America and, on the other, his desire to perpetuate false narratives about the seriousness of the situation and amplify anti-science conspiracy theories, was quite something to behold. The same man who championed “Operation Warp Speed” also introduced the world to the novel virus-fighting concepts articulated in the following infamous quote,
I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it out in one minute. And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning. I said supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way. So, we’ll see, but the whole concept of the light, the way it kills it in one minute – that’s pretty powerful.
Yes, that was indeed some “pretty powerful” stuff. And the former president’s complicated relationship with science was “pretty powerful” when it came to creating confusion among supporters who, while perfectly willing to leap off a cliff for Trump, simultaneously harbored reservations about vaccines based on some of the same conspiratorial narratives he himself amplified.
I should note (as I sometimes do) that none of the above is partisan or “anti-Trump.” It just is what it is. Trump launched an aggressive (and ultimately successful) push to develop multiple vaccines, which he proudly touted, only to undermine faith in them by refusing to disavow the kind of anti-science rhetoric espoused to this very day by some his most ardent supporters, including Marjorie Taylor Greene.
To be sure, there are legitimate concerns about the vaccines. The AstraZeneca shot was plagued by various issues, some health-related, some logistical, for example. And the J&J shot was briefly halted over similar safety worries. Just Wednesday, Israel said it’s looking into a possible link between the Pfizer shot and heart inflammation in young men.
But such concerns, I’d argue, have far less explanatory power when it comes to vaccine hesitancy than demographic and social factors, especially in the US.
“While US vaccine demand is middling compared to other countries, there are big differences across states,” Goldman said, in the same note mentioned here at the outset. Citing Census Bureau data, the bank noted that “vaccination rates are highest in Vermont (82%) and lowest in Mississippi (at 44%) with generally higher rates in the Northeast and West than in the South and Midwest.”
Needless to say, that’s not a coincidence.
Goldman did the math. As the figure on the right (above) shows, age, income, religion and Democratic vote share “explain most of the variation in demand between US states,” the bank said.
At the end of the day, one thing seems to speak louder than age, partisan affiliation and God, though. The figure (below) shows what happened when Ohio announced it would hand out five $1 million prizes to vaccinated adults in the state.
Nothing further.
Under the circumstances, and given the data on display here, it would seem difficult to accept the idea that all the people without masks in my grocery store and my local Walmart are, in fact, vaccinated. As of this week MO has received 1.5mil doses than it has used (and an extra 800k or so in neighboring KS).
It is hard to fight ignorance.
It’s possible that the RFID nano chips in the vaccine are now airborne and thus spreading with new variants, but what’s confusing is why so little research is out there regarding how many chips are still able to pass through the h1n1 filters. Unreal!
It’s also confusing as to what Goldman means by demand, like demand for what?
I appreciate you for reminding me about how the light killed the viruses!!!
Vaccine demand.
I’m sure someone has done the calcs: what % of US economic output, consumer spending, or other metric of choice is represented by high vaccine demand regions vs low vaccine demand regions?
We could eventually get to a point where, from an economic perspective, the remaining unvaccinated population becomes less and less economically meaningful.
Yes, a callous way to look at it. But we’re investors, not social workers.
A 2001 study also revealed US states with higher average IQ scores also vote blue … lower average IQ – red…
…shocking…
Having just finished ‘Jesus and John Wayne’ this basically lines up with exactly what you would expect with the “Evangelical” cult. Toss out scripture, toss out science and focus solely on authoritarian patriarchal power structures. It’s seems like one big facist death cult because that is exactly what it is. Until Trump tells them God gave him the vaccine to save them from a Chinese biological attack they aren’t getting it.