‘Obscene’ Wealth Gains And The ‘Natural End To Nihilistic Bull Markets’
"We'll know if it's a bubble by the end of Q1," BofA's Michael Hartnett wrote, in the latest edition of the bank's weekly "Flow Show" series.
For several weeks (at least), Hartnett has suggested it might not be a terrible idea to eventually consider "selling the news," so to speak. He hasn't used that old saw, instead reiterating a "sell the vaccine" bullet point that cautions on "peak positioning, policy, and profits."
Needless to say, that call has been early, something he readily admitted t
I don’t know. Maybe it crashes tomorrow. Maybe it doesn’t.
There seems to be a sense that this one has to keep going until the next phase in the monetary regime is ready, a regime where the Fed can just deposit money into people’s phones for them to spend. A regime where sovereign debt jubilee is real. There is room to keep it going; the Fed balance sheet is still only $7T.
Let’s face it, if it blows now, we go into two more depressions. A mental depression that causes people this time to jump out of windows (we do it a different way any longer but with same result) because of the financial depression they are suffering from. Think Case and Deaton applied this time to the upper 40% (but not including the 1%). Pensions broke. Life insurance broke. 401(k) accounts down 60%. Baby Boomers living on the streets, falling prey to all manner of predations.
We don’t know what the future regime is going to bring. We do know there will be more technological disruption. And, the labor market will ail for a long while, maybe for the rest of our lifetimes. There’s little choice any longer but to keep it going until a new monetary regime is in place, where the debts can be whisked aside, despite the obscenities in the charts.
That said, seems like there is some consensus that a short and sharp air pocket of 20% later in this quarter wouldn’t be all that bad. As far a a full-on crash that persists, no one wants this. No one would benefit and many of those who are not already suffering would suffer.
Say what you will about the tenets of MMT, at least it’s an ethos.
lol
No one, especially the politicians (from Bernie to McConnell to Biden), wants the stock market to crash.
Until there is a better alternative where people/pension funds can invest their money- seems like the “fix” will remain the modus operandi. From what I have read, Wall Street gave lots of money to the Democratic candidates ( a shift from historically donating more to Republicans).
Kind of surprised the Treasury/Federal Reserve is letting Bitcoin run- but that is probably not on the “top 10 list” of problems…..yet.
Yeah I feel like the idea of worrying about a $1T bubble right now is like worrying about leaving the oven on in your condo while the forest fires are sweeping through the neighborhood.
Hasn’t the practice been to donate to both parties, as well as both candidates in some large-scale elections? I first heard about that in a Microsoft-specific article, and was boggled.
However, the intention may be to make whoever is elected feel beholden to the donor. This only works if neither candidate is supporting a specific issue against the Wall Street donor.