America The Infected

The US now has two COVID-19 vaccines approved for emergency use by the FDA.

As widely expected, the regulator cleared Moderna’s shot on Friday evening, calling it “another crucial step in the fight against this global pandemic that is causing vast numbers of hospitalizations and deaths in the United States each day.”

“Vast,” indeed. The CDC’s data (which I use for consistency, although it doesn’t always match up perfectly with data from alternative sources), shows the US lost nearly 3,500 people on two consecutive days this week. The seven-day average is now 2,622 by my math, meaning America loses more people to COVID-19 every 24 hours than the country lost in 9/11.

Hospitalizations nationwide were 114,751 on Friday, according to The COVID Tracking Project. A month ago, that figure was 79,517.

This was the reality facing the country as congressional Republicans held up stimulus talks to debate the Fed’s 13(3) powers. Congress passed a two-day stopgap bill to fund the government through Sunday evening in order to give lawmakers another 48 hours to argue.

As discussed at length in “‘Who Wants To Be A Guinea Pig?’,” the demand side of the vaccine equation looked a bit problematic in the early days of distribution. In simple terms: Many Americans are reluctant to be vaccinated. There are a variety of dynamics that explain this, and I spent quite a bit of time documenting them in November (here). But without delving into the sociological debate, the most immediate concern is just that the vaccines were developed rapidly (at “warp speed,” in fact) and that worries some Americans.

While not everyone needs to get the vaccine for it to be effective in curbing the spread, projections for the global economy in 2021 depend heavily on assumptions about widespread vaccination in major western nations, something Goldman underscored in a Friday evening note, documenting risks to their outlook.

“Core to our equity market forecast has been the assumption that an effective vaccine is delivered and widely distributed in the US by the first half of 2021,” the bank’s David Kostin said. “However, the first week of vaccine distribution has proven that the logistics of proper delivery are complex and uncertainty remains around the number of doses that will be distributed in the first half.”

That’s a nod to the supply-side issues. But those will likely be overcome. Kostin then flags the demand-side concern. “Vaccine demand will also be an important driver of the recovery,” he remarked, citing a YouGov poll that suggested just 41% of the population was willing to get vaccinated. 28% weren’t sure, and nearly a third (31%) said they wouldn’t get a vaccine.

“A mismatch in vaccine supply and demand would represent a downside risk to our forecast, as would a slower-than-expected rebound in consumer activity even if distribution proceeds smoothly,” Kostin went on to remark.

That may seem like boilerplate commentary, and to a certain extent it is, but at the same time, this is really all that matters. It’s not just that an unwillingness to get the vaccine could affect the timeline on curbing the spread of serious, symptomatic cases. A secondary concern is that consumption tied to an assumed return to “normality” may be delayed if would-be consumers believe their fellow Americans haven’t been vaccinated.

Sure, if you get the vaccine, you’ll be protected, but media stories documenting widespread reluctance to get the shot could still delay the economic normalization process, as nobody wants to be around sick people even if you think the likelihood of you getting sick is diminished by a vaccine.

A new Ipsos poll describes a public that wants to see how others respond to the vaccine before receiving it themselves. “When it comes to themselves, most Americans say they are likely to get the vaccine eventually, but people are split on getting it as soon as possible versus waiting a while,” the poll reads.

Of course, this issue could resolve itself given that availability will be constrained in the very near-term. In other words, by the time it’s available to everyone who wants to get it immediately, enough frontline and healthcare workers will have received it to make most “regular” people more comfortable. Or at least that’s one idea.

There have been five allergic reactions to Pfizer’s vaccine in the US so far, and a handful in the UK. Two of the instances involved anaphylaxis, but that’s considered a precaution, not a contraindication, and one imagines the solution is just to be sure injection sites have EpiPens.

Moderna intends to produce 20 million doses for America by the end of this year, and as many as 100 million doses in the first quarter of 2021. Nearly 6 million will go out immediately, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said Wednesday.

In a Friday statement, Anthony Fauci said he hopes “all Americans will protect themselves by getting vaccinated.” “That is how our country will begin to heal and move forward,” he added.

In the same Ipsos poll cited above, 39% of Americans said they think states should make vaccination mandatory for people returning to school or work. 69% said they or someone they know, had been infected with COVID-19 at some point.