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Slow Bleed
The dollar moved higher from a 29-month low Thursday, as risk-off vibes tied to America's COVID epid
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I’m looking past the bridge. Roughly speaking, 70% of US GDP comes from areas that are paying attention and, hence, may follow Europe’s fairly rapid 4-week interval around the latest peak. In the areas comprising the other 30% (e.g. South Dakota and ilk), the citizenry and leaders have coarsely decided they would rather maximize GDP than minimize death (my stock portfolio thanks you, Kristi). Both of these net out to a non-dramatic hit nationally.
And a random data point: my socially responsible millennials basically cancelled Thanksgiving on us on a family call last night, for our own sake, a week after we’d already pruned the holiday back to immediate family. We’ll forever remember 2020 Thanksgiving as the year we negotiated risk mitigation rather than menus. I’ll irrationally extrapolate this to a national projection that the Covid “turkey surge” will fail to meet expectations. Call me an optimist.
I really appreciate the perspective.
As an example of me changing my thinking in the face of new facts, it really is in my best interest if as many states as possible, other than mine own state, do not announcement new tightening. They keep their restaurants open, die, and my portfolio doesn’t deflate. All the while my state has a low COVID incidence. I love being so flexible and adaptive in the face of new information. Win win!
A huge number of people are dying and will continue to die for many months to come. Eliminate the numbing effect of daily death count reporting and it’s staggering. It feels shameful to continue to talk about making money on the back of a global tragedy. I get that daily life must go on, including managing investments. It’s something akin to walking past starving homeless people on your way to a 3 star restaurant to celebrate a 3 bagger. How we choose to move forward under the circumstances might be the enduring question of our times. Me, I have no answers. I’ll still go out to a nice restaurant when it’s safe, but I’m going to half to park some guilt at the door.