Nomura’s McElligott On Trump Virus News: This ‘Risks A Rapid Change To The Market’s Assigned Election Probabilities’
"Fresh tails" are piling up, Nomura's Charlie McElligott said, in a Friday note, as the market struggled to digest news that the President of the United States now has a virus that's killed more than 200,000 Americans over just eight months.
"The virus has infiltrated the highest levels of the US government", McElligott wrote, flagging the age risk associated with some high-level officials and calling Friday's news "another remarkable twist... into and around the election".
Charlie largely ech
At 64, I had a mild form of this virus. I was lucky and had time to sleep quite a lot. I have read toughing through the virus is not a good strategy. I had it ongoing for about 8 weeks, with bouts of tiredness. What does last 2 weeks is the contagious stage, but after you still feel really bad. It is about the 2-4 weeks stage I think that people are either going to the hospital or are going to turn the corner for the better. So Donald will feel bad till November and will likely have limited capacity through the election.
I keep reading commentary about how equities need to “price in” Biden’s corporate tax proposals. My question to you folks is why should the impact on earnings matter? Earnings and valuations have not mattered for years, at least on a macro level. Why should that change now?
Good points.
Could just be more foolery, shade on the sheeple who think they will be enviably rich one day (but never will be).
Vote for anyone left of a neo-conservative, and corporate taxes are going up. Vote for a neo-con and you’re nest egg will be $3,000 bigger when you retire. Sure, you’ll receive 20% of the SSI in retirement you were expecting, but your T-bond earnings on that extra $3k net yet $30/year. Win!
i don’t know what to believe anymore. Very strange timing. He is just as likely to show up in 2 weeks all better declaring that he beat it. Trump the superman🤪
It appears that kind of strategy worked for “the Trump of Latin America”, Jair Bolsonaro.
I agree. This would be the first tweet from Trump that is not a lie. What is the probability that he would stop lying long enough for one tweet a month before the election? Maybe a probability of 0.02?
Could be a bunch of crap. Let’s get at least two, independently verified sources.
If he goes to Walter Reed, could be for a different condition.
We should expect at some point before too long, he’ll surface and say: “See, I had it, I got over it. It’s just like the flu. I told you and you didn’t believe me. The fake news is lying to you about the 210,000 people who died.”
Regarding the probabilities of “big infrastructure spending, and even the Green New Deal” of a Democratic sweep, a plus for the longer-term economy is that investments in productive areas will generate future economic returns, jobs, tax revenues, and industries. It’s about the children, right?
I am a piss ant and mean nothing, but I would encourage them to take advantage of a sweep by seriously using government money, i.e., MMT, to invest in areas that the Chinese are a threat technologically of overtaking the U.S. These areas include bio, nano, AI, and down the list.
I view the time horizon of outlook as a key, distinguishing factor of the two parties. Granted, the Democrats are not the Japanese, Germans, Chinese, or Singapore, when it comes to looking at building a stronger economy for the children. But, still, for the U.S. they are the only chance to move the needle on investment for the future.