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Retail Recovery Faltered In July, But Mixed Data Blunts Impact
For all the talk about a "V-shaped" recovery in the US economy, the only top-tier data point to experience an actual, "real" rebound to pre-pandemic levels is retail sales.
Coming off the largest MoM gain in recorded history in May, spending came in hot again in June, rising 7.5% to wipe away the COVID plunge. Other purported "V"s you may have seen trotted out are mostly PMIs or charts showing the MoM change in a given indicator (e.g., nonfarm payrolls), which is obviously something quite diff
The ‘correct ‘ concept is ( a well named ) Simulated Economy and it renders all retail based statistics in severe state of doubt unless one assumes it to be a permanent feature of Life in America (and elsewhere ) in years to come…If that’s the case we need to call the existing system by some other name ( lots of choices )…..