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‘1999-Lite’, Why Markets Are Up Big, And What Comes Next
We're living in "1999-lite", according to one bank's popular weekly flows update.
It's all about central banks and their Herculean efforts to push rates lower, compress spreads, and tamp down volatility, BofA's Michael Hartnett writes, in this week's "Flow Show".
Naturally, this begets "speculative froth", he says, citing a doubling in the IPO ETF since the March lows and China's STAR board trading at 109x, among other manifestations of bubbly markets.
It also helps that "there was no Lehma
25% gold seems overkill
#MidasGoals2020
conservative allocation probably not the best even if you are conservative. gold and cash look like real portfolio drags. would i put money in those assets- maybe. but not nearly so high. a better conservative allocation would have a higher allocation to bonds- especially certain spread product, and small allocations to gold and stocks. in fact maybe you replace gold with gold mining stocks. and perhaps you allocate extra to em, small cap, and value but less to stocks overall.
Heh, I think I am almost 50% into gold and silver now. Mostly gold. Most new money will go into cash until things stabilize a bit. Bankruptcy wave is just getting going I suspect.
never say never although completely understood about the island, oh to be on one right now…it seems like all roads have been and continue to lead to gold these days / months.. With global fiat currencies in a devaluation competition it seems like just a matter of time before reflexive gold buying heats up intensely among governments and central banks…the holders of the most gold may come out on top in the end of this chapter … just my copper less two pennies…
Why have you got against gold? You can answer in a future column.
Let’s say in January 2018 you could choose between two portfolios: 1. NDX or 2 (50% Gold, 50% long dated Treasuries). Lets say that you leveraged up the second portfolio so that it had the same volatility as the first one based on trailing 3yr volatility. While I have not actually made the computation, I suspect portfolio number 2 is not trailing the NDX one my much if at all.