Deep In The Heart Of Texas
You know it's serious when the "taverns" close.
Texas governor Greg Abbott on Friday ordered bars shut from noon local time, as the state struggles to "corral" (as Abbott is fond of putting it) one of the nation's most acute COVID-19 flare-ups.
The same executive order contains a number of additional stipulations, including the following:
All bars and similar establishments that receive more than 51% of their gross receipts from the sale of alcoholic beverages are required to close at 12
Maybe bank stress testing was spot on yesterday if TX, AZ, FLA all continue towards a second, full or partial, lockdown. Can’t be good for small business lending. More Federal aid to come?
Sounds like Florida is closing down the bars too, but our Governor seems reluctant to say it himself. He had one of the departments tweet it out. https://www.wptv.com/news/state/bars-in-florida-can-no-longer-serve-alcohol-state-official-announces?fbclid=IwAR0kWukNiytLCdpDFx1BC43xRCh6Go8c_uctUe3bfCiP_Ot2os3RUi-UCic
Considering that the accepted norm is that this virus takes 14 days to manifest itself. The steps taken today won’t be felt in terms of impact to daily infection rates until then. It will be really interesting to see the impacts of the policies in two weeks but I doubt very many people will remember them by then.
That is why one needs to be cautious about buying the really dumb narrative that everything is going back to normal in a v or i shaped recovery. It’s dumb, not because it is impossible- although I think both are unlikely. It’s dumb because we still don’t know the course of the pandemic, nor do we fully understand the disease. It has not been around that long. One of my trader friends has it right, expand the range of possible outcomes he said. So all the quant guys with a lot of smarts but not a lot of wisdom are free to make their forecasts, but the right answer is this is really unprecendented in our post WW2 economy. You can model anything if you want, but the models have very low probability of being accurate.
Very good comment.
Who could have possibly seen this coming? If only there’d been some kind of warning from what happened to the states that got hit first…