Larry Kudlow Goes All In, Floats ‘I-Shaped’ Recovery Narrative Where ‘It Just Goes Straight Up’
There were additional signs of economic stabilization in the world's largest economy on Monday, even as worries about a second virus wave were a wet blanket on sentiment.
Empire manufacturing printed -0.2 for June, far better than the -29.6 the market was looking for, although, as you might imagine, the range of estimates remains comical (-41 to 25).
Notably, optimism surged. The future business conditions gauge jumped 27 points to 56.5. That is the highest in more than a decade.
That might
The precursor to an I shape recovery is the A Hole, btw…
I mean sure why not, you can probably have 75% unemployment and DOW $1 million at the same time with massive waves of bankruptcy… FED just has to up QE Flows so that any sellers get destroyed instantly. It doesn’t really solve any real world issues but that’s hardly the point of an economy… allocating resources efficiently…
Kudlow sounds like he’s becoming hypoxic.
I haven’t seen any explanations on how we are going to get back to Jan 2020 GDP prior to Jan 2022. And this is the earliest of the estimates.
I’m of the Jim Bianco school on this. Congratulations, let’s say you get back to 90% of Jan 2020 GDP by Jan 2021. That’s still 10% below the year before. GDP down 10% YoY is at least a bad recession. Welcome to the 90% economy.
If the market is worried about a second wave, then they need to dig deeper than to look at higher number of cases. It’s a necessary metric, but not the only relevant one. Other relevant metrics: hospitalization rates, ICU occupation, R rate. oh, and also – are we contact tracing and isolating these new cases. Feel free to check out what a reasonably normal country monitor as it reopens: https://www.santepubliquefrance.fr/maladies-et-traumatismes/maladies-et-infections-respiratoires/infection-a-coronavirus/documents/bulletin-national/covid-19-point-epidemiologique-du-11-juin-2020
“Right now, America isn’t doing a good job of striking that admittedly delicate balance, and it’s confusing the hell out of traders and investors.”
And the general public. A little less clic bait news and more nuanced reporting would be nice…
Yes. This article could be filed under politics rather than economy
And I just heard on CNN that Trump wants to stop testing.