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Nomura’s McElligott: CTAs Set To Flip Long In S&P As Vol Normalization Triggers ‘Second-Order Slingshot’
Outside of oil, markets are making an effort to normalize.
That makes markets not much different fr
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The levels for CTA re-leveraging highlighted here can easily be triggered today, bye bye negative gamma, economic reality be dammed
This is a great post and very insightful. I have been seeing the same things in my risk models. I took off some risk about 3% ago in the stock market. It was the right thing to do for my client base but I can totally see with my own eyes with my own risk models what is happening. As the Vix or other volatility goes down, your risk model will tell you that you are underweight risk and encourage you to buy- if you closely follow your models. This rerisking will continue until either another headline comes out or sentiment somehow changes. This is a trend following phenomena, and it works well in linear markets, as long as the market is functioning and there is a trend. Much like a momentum strategy in stocks.
Dancing around the music of fantasy earnings and listening to Pied Piper hype is a truely dangerous game. If you’re willing to look past earnings, accounting and reality, now is a great time to follow other lemmings!
So now that we closed a hair under 2900, is the releveraging in play?
Jez, parsing Charlie M’s words very carefully, it sounds like the true “flip” trigger occurs at 2901 Futs/2905 Spot GOING INTO THE CLOSE. Obviously, SPX faded lower throughout the day (Tuesday 4/28), closing @ 2863. But, the big gap higher AT THE OPEN (2910-ish) may have been the CTA’s beginning their covers, only to abandon the effort as SPX faded lower (…Charlie M noted that the CTA’s may try to get a head start on their covers on days where a flip at the close is within reasonable range).
As I write this, Futs in the Asian time zones are higher at 2895, so maybe Wednesday might be “flip day” ?
As the orange balloonhead likes to utter: “We’ll see what happens”.