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‘Mania Has Taken Hold’, And Other Observations As The Tape Goes ‘Macro’
"It’s a macro tape, you’re just living in it", Nomura's Charlie McElligott wrote Wednesday morni
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Investors expect widespread guide-downs for 1Q, yet COMP +0.8% today . . . market willing to look through
Seen on FinTwit this am from Jim Cramer: “what the hell is happening? Where are the sellers??”
Yeah, I saw that. He’s the worst at trolling, primarily because it’s never clear whether he’s trying to troll or not. He doesn’t know how to throw any shade.
Days like today make the cognitive dissonance associated with BTFD mentality too hard to ignore. Valuation, macro events, negative earnings, corporate debt…none of it matters, and yet, it does…or at least, it will. I work in the tourism industry which I can attest is being decimated right now. While I’d love to my finger in my ears and ignore what’s happening with stocks like TSLA and SPCE, it’s too similar to 1999. Best of luck to bulls.
It just occurred to me that there is a similar relationship between objective versus subjective criteria and the concept of trolling versus manipulation (media or financial/political…) My reasoning is the definitions of these concepts have become so muddled in this age of information overflow that it literally takes a news cycle to sort out rational thoughts or critique on anything ……Bizarre events have become the rule of the day so the market maybe is smarter than all of us , and reacts to absolutely nothing…
I have known and respected Mike for a long time and again totally am on the same page with his thinking.
But as I get run over betting on rationality and fundamentals to eventually win I keep thinking if we have our hair slicked back acting like Elvis with girlfriends in poodle skirts and maybe the quants/computers have just taken us and pushed us aside to the relic bin.
CBs have distorted markets, computers/quants have as well. I love this industry, this career but it sometimes feels like I am crooning while the world is rapping and I am all alone.
The end of the long/short manager………..