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The Case For The Fed Cutting Rates Back To Zero

"...you cannot fight a recession with only one or two rate cuts".

On Wednesday evening, we spent a few minutes talking about the economy in the context of a January 6 note from Morgan Stanley, which found the bank reminding investors that even if the Fed succeeds in extending the longest expansion in US history, that's no guarantee of a Trump win in November. What's interesting is how quickly the narrative has pivoted from August, when market participants (and, according to some polls, voters) were increasingly convinced that a recession was in the cards. Those fears were exacerbated by the inversion of the 2s10s although, as we explained at the time, that was something of a false optic created by convexity flows, as some market participants were forced to chase yields lower. Fast forward to January and instead of discussing whether a likely US downturn will deep-six the president's re-election bid, now we're reminding ourselves that due to the small sample size and a number of other factors (e.g., Trump's relatively lackluster approval rating), assumed economic strength doesn't necessarily mean that the election result is a foregone conclusion. Read more: Morgan Stanley: A Good Economy Does Not Guarantee Trump’s Re-Election To be sure, it'
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