Chupacabra.
I hate to be derisive towards anyone who harbors a justifiably skeptical view of financial assets which, for a decade, have benefited handsomely from trillions in central bank liquidity, record low rates and, just to make sure there's no confusion, persistently dovish forward guidance.
And yet, past a certain point, honest people (and that qualifier necessarily excludes quite a few popular online commentators) are compelled to admit that normative considerations related to the long-term perils
Nasdaq. Hit 5000 approx 20 years ago. Now up 80% in that time period. Was the population growth worse over that time frame than the next 20? Productivity? What about deficits? Rates? (Cushion to cut). CB bal sheets? Corp bal sheets? Even consumer bal sheets? How about the middle class? Hollowed out and continuing or going to better? Upper middle class? Trade policy? Health care? Lufe expectancy? Aging population? Innovation? Start-ups. Ãœber and WeWork are not Intel and Microsoft. Corp profits (NIPA) over the past 10 years vs previous 10? Next 10?
Not to justify monetizing perma “bears” but there needs to be education to the masses as to why today may not give them the returns of the past decade.
USA may not be Japan but there may be similarities that may haunt the USA.
Signed a tactical bear.
SP500 doubled plus a touch in 12 years. Profits up around 80% but needed a massive corp tax cut (about 25% of the increase). massive buybacks and deteriorating bal sheets. 40% of SP500 companies are probably dinosaurs.
We can talk about returns from bottoms but few retail folk ( and few pros) buy there. Many but near tops and sell bottoms.
How many bought last year vs buying today? How about 08/09 vs 99?
Energy was all the rage among HFs in 06/07. Oops. Now few want them (maybe for good reason).
You did your civic duty to warn about other sites.
Let’s get going to figure this out rather than worrying about the master click baters.
“This state of affairs — where millions of people consume wholly fantastical financial content each day and mistake it for being at least somewhat veracious.” Think ZeroHedge, the now laughable ‘fight club.’ Once interesting but now just a version of What Really Happened. BTW, great post!
Great post H… This is something that sooner or later had to be said… Getting sucked in on what you are referring too here for the second quarter of the last decade is one thing ,but the last five years would /and some did not learn ….well it could be classed as masochism..
Only question I would have (don’t answer please) is …..Actually just how fast was your learning curve….??? I I’m guessing fast but…..!!
“Don’t fight the Fed”, and similar, work most of the time. Exactly how much, not sure – 70% maybe.
In the trading world, if you’re right 55% of the time, you’re way, way better than most. 65% and you’re some kind of genius.
The best is if you can combine being right 55% of the time with a risk control strategy so that you lose less when you’re wrong than you make when you’re right.