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Last December Was The Worst For Markets Since The Great Depression. Traders Hope This Year Is Kinder

One thing's for sure...

Assuming market participants can forget about the Sword of Damocles hanging over their heads (i.e., the looming December 15 deadline for the Trump administration to delay or call off the next scheduled tariff escalation), the data will be in focus during the first week of December. Those expecting a continuation of the pro-cyclical rotation generally believe the coordinated global easing push from central banks will start to manifest itself (with a lag) in, for example, better PMI data. On Saturday, China's official manufacturing PMI rebounded into expansion territory for the first time since April. Similarly, Germany's factory slump has shown signs of abating and the Markit PMI for the US recently hit a seven-month high, setting the stage for what optimists hope will be a rebound in ISM after three consecutive months spent mired in contraction. Note that the bounce in China's NBS gauge helps close the gap with the Caixin print (see the disparity between the yellow and bright-red lines in the chart), but other recent data points to ongoing weakness in the world's second-largest economy. Industrial profits plunged the most on record in October, for example. Markets will likely
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