Retail Sales Post First Drop Since February In Fresh Sign That MAGA Economy Is Decelerating

Retail Sales Post First Drop Since February In Fresh Sign That MAGA Economy Is Decelerating

Even as the US manufacturing sector joined the rest of the world in a factory slump starting in August, the consumer continued to show up for Donald Trump. Despite a grievous late-summer slide in consumer sentiment, retail sales posted a better-than-expected 0.4% gain for the month. It was the sixth straight month of rising sales, and it helped make the case that manufacturing recession or no, the US consumer could be relied upon to help prolong the expansion. Well, on Wednesday, there was bad
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One thought on “Retail Sales Post First Drop Since February In Fresh Sign That MAGA Economy Is Decelerating

  1. Related –

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-little-known-recession-indicator-is-now-sending-investors-and-consumers-a-warning-2019-10-17

    “The University of Michigan survey more closely reflects U.S. consumers’ attitudes towards their immediate personal circumstances, he asserts, whereas the Conference Board index reflects consumers’ attitudes towards the overall economy generally. For example, the Conference Board’s survey, but not the University of Michigan’s, reflects confidence about job prospects in one’s region.”

    “a composite indicator calculated by subtracting the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index from the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading.”

    “this composite indicator typically reaches a low prior to recessions, and that it currently is lower than at any other time since 1979 (which is when the Conference Board began updating its index on a monthly basis).”

    If I’m reading this right, the composite being negative like now means consumers are less positive about their own personal circumstances than about the overall economy? Or could be something technical about how the surveys and indicies are built?

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