Lost in the fog of partisan war, impeachment talk and Donald Trump’s various pronouncements, lamentations and declarations, is Elizabeth Warren, who is now the Democratic frontrunner – at least according to a handful of polls, including a new national survey by Quinnipiac.
27% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents favored Warren in the poll, released on Wednesday. That compares to 25% for Biden.
Over the weekend, the latest Des Moines Register/CNN poll showed Warren overtaking the former vice president in Iowa for the first time, in what J. Ann Selzer called “the first major shakeup” of the Democratic primary.
Read more: Elizabeth Warren Overtakes Joe Biden In Iowa
Warren’s 2% lead in the new Quinnipiac poll is within the margin of error, but it marks a stark contrast with August, when Biden held a commanding 32% to 19% edge over the tough-as-nails Massachusetts senator.
Remarkably, Warren now holds a 17 point lead over Biden among white voters with a college degree. That demographic was largely split last month with Biden holding a slight edge. Fast forward to September and those voters support Warren over Biden by a 37% to 20% margin. Again, it would appear that having a plan for everything and, just as importantly, being able to articulate it eloquently and forcefully actually matters to educated voters. Who knew, right?
“After trailing by double digits since March in the race for the Democratic nomination, Warren catches Biden”, Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy said. “We now have a race with two candidates at the top of the field, and they’re leaving the rest of the pack behind”.
Sadly, Kamala Harris was at just 3%, her lowest showing yet. That is highly disappointing considering her standout performance in the first debate. Much as we said of Beto last week, it’s easy to make a list of reasons why Harris isn’t polling higher. What’s not so easy is to explain why she’s now barely polling at all.
In any event, Warren is generating quite the buzz. Democratic and Democratic leaning voters said 70% to 18% that they’d be excited if she became the nominee. Those numbers are 56 – 35 for Biden and 55 – 38 for Sanders.
“Dig a little deeper, and the reasons behind Warren’s rise become more clear. She generates a lot of excitement as a potential nominee”, Malloy went on to say, adding that “on top of that, half of Democrats want a presidential candidate that supports big changes – even if it means things are harder along the way”.
That is a crucial point and it probably speaks at least a little bit to the sense of urgency stirred up by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar, Ayanna Pressley and Rashida Tlaib, who have argued loudly and persistently for sweeping change and advocate confronting even the most contentious issues head-on.
It would not be a stretch to suggest that Warren has benefited from their celebrity status. Of course, Bernie Sanders should theoretically benefit from that same sentiment, but the fact is, Bernie is a hard sell for a lot of Americans. With Warren, you get all the Bernie you need and none of the Bernie you don’t.
At South by Southwest in Austin earlier this year, AOC drew a larger crowd than Warren. At that very event, Ocasio-Cortez lambasted what she called “the meh”. Here, for those who need a refresher, is what she said:
Moderate is not a stance. It’s just an attitude towards life of, like, ‘meh,’. We’ve become so cynical, that we view ‘meh,’ or ‘eh’ – we view cynicism as an intellectually superior attitude, and we view ambition as youthful naivete when … the greatest things we have ever accomplished as a society have been ambitious acts of visions. The ‘meh’ is worshipped now. For what?
Forgive us for stating the obvious, but Joe Biden is “the meh” personified.
Adding insult to injury for Biden following the Iowa news was a Monmouth University poll released on Tuesday which showed Warren’s support at 27% in New Hampshire. Biden fell to 25%, a massive 11 point decline from May.
This is shaping up to be a kind of tragicomedy for Donald Trump, who has apparently spent the last several months scheming with Rudy Giuliani and running down leads on Biden and Hillary Clinton’s e-mail server halfway around the world in Ukraine. It would be a fitting end indeed if Trump were get himself impeached over his obsession with all things Obama-related only to see Biden lose the nomination to Warren.
It’s at least possible that the former VP could actually benefit from the drama with Trump and Ukraine. Indeed, a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll conducted on Monday and Tuesday delivered a 1% rise in support for Biden versus last week.
Still, the writing is on the wall – it is, as Matt Drudge put it in a rare tweet last week – Warren’s nomination to lose.
For many, the most important item is that Trump doesn’t 2020 election. I believe it is false narrative to sell the small likelyhood that there will be massive turnout with a progressive candidate, the history and probabilities don’t suggest it will happen.
What does matter is how the Democratic candidate polls in a select few states versus Trump. In particular PA,WI, MI. Secondarily AZ, NH, NV, MN. Potentially FL and NC.
AOC’s left leaning district is not main stream, will not be main stream and her prominence in media is a disservice to the the rest of the US.
As much as some of the Heisenberg identities are big fans, 4 more years of MAGA is not what many want.
Funny you say that, and yet Elizabeth Warren is the now ahead of Biden and she’s a Progressive. Also, this bit: “[AOC’s] prominence in media is a disservice to the the rest of the US” is you presuming to speak for Americans, millions upon millions of whom follow her on social media and are now interested in economics (via MMT) and government for the first time.
How many millions of young Americans have you inspired? I’m guessing not as many as Ocasio-Cortez. How many impoverished children in Africa are living vicariously through you as they are through Ilhan Omar? How many Palestinians look to you as a beacon of hope as they do to Rashida Tlaib?
Right. That’s what I figured.
How do you know she’s not electable in a general election? People said Trump wasn’t electable. Hell, people said Reagan was too far to the right in 1980–Carter / Democrats wanted him to win the nomination.
The slice of the electorate Warren needs in order to win the election is different from Biden, Sanders and any other Democratic candidate. That doesn’t mean she can’t win a general election against Trump. Far from it in my opinion.
I am voting against party before country republicans. I care less who the nominee or how left they lean as long as that person stands a chance at winning.
“Bernie is a hard sell for a lot of Americans. With Warren, you get all the Bernie you need and none of the Bernie you don’t.” Amen brother, that was well put. This boomer is sick as sick with my cohort. I’m all in with the ‘yutes’.
Warren May be exactly what the US needs out of this clusterfuck.
Warren is alone in the center lane of the party, one closer to schism that it’s willing to admit (progressives seem finished w remaining captive to what they see as a failed coalition). As she peels off voters from both sides, it makes sense that she’s pulling ahead. But whether the multiracial working class will get behind her truly remains to be seen. IA and NH are not multiracial. In 2020, the Ivy League cannot foist itself on the country and expect to win.